A note from AllianceBernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani on Tuesday argued that Bitcoin has likely hit its cycle low and could now head higher from around $71,000 to a year-end target of $150,000. The call follows a correction that saw Bitcoin drop nearly 50% from its October 2025 peak of $126,279, with a low near $62,500 in late February.
Macro Pressures Drove the Pullback, Not Systemic Failures
Bernstein tied the downturn to macroeconomic forces and market dynamics rather than internal crypto failures. Past crypto winters often included exchange collapses and lending platform implosions; this time, no such institutional breakdowns occurred. Analysts pointed to geopolitical tensions from U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, persistent high interest rates, leveraged liquidations, and profit-taking. They described the correction as a temporary sentiment reset.
ETF Inflows and Institutional Demand Hold Firm
Throughout the rout, institutional appetite remained intact. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated over $56 billion in cumulative net inflows. In March 2026, four consecutive weeks generated over $2 billion in fresh capital. Combined ETF assets now sit near $90 billion, representing roughly 6.4% of Bitcoin's market cap. Bernstein flagged this as a key stability driver.
Long-Term Holders and Corporate Holdings Bolster Supply Dynamics
More than 60% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is held by long-term holders. Public companies collectively own over 1 million BTC, or about 5.6% of total supply. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), led by Michael Saylor, holds roughly 762,099 BTC, valued at about $53.5 billion — 3.6% of supply. Bernstein continues to favor Strategy's preferred instrument, STRC, which pays an 11.5% monthly dividend and saw trading volumes rise 65%. Its structure allows capital raising without equity dilution.
Bitcoin Outperforms Gold by 25% Since Late February
Since late February, Bitcoin has outperformed gold by roughly 25% amid rising geopolitical risks. Bernstein maintains its year-end $150,000 target, underpinned by ETF inflows, corporate holdings, and long-term holder conviction.