Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani has kept a long-term bullish view on Bitcoin, describing the current drawdown as one of the weakest bear-market phases on record. The report argues that this decline is driven mainly by a reset in market confidence, not by the kind of structural damage seen in past crypto downturns. On that basis, Bernstein maintained its call for Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by the end of 2026.
Bernstein says this pullback lacks the shock seen in past crises
The report compares the present selloff with earlier industry failures including Mt. Gox, Terra Luna, FTX, and Three Arrows Capital. Its conclusion is straightforward: this cycle has not produced a comparable systemic event. Bernstein’s team said the Bitcoin network remains stable and there are no signs of uncontrolled large-scale liquidations, suggesting the drop is closer to a price correction than a breakdown in the market’s underlying structure.
The firm also said Bitcoin still trades more like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset than a full safe-haven alternative to gold. In a high-rate and tight financial environment, that behavior is not treated as unusual. In Bernstein’s view, that reflects the macro setting rather than an erosion of Bitcoin’s core value proposition.
Spot ETF flows and institutional access remain central to the thesis
Bernstein’s report points to a deeper connection between Bitcoin and mainstream finance as the key difference in this cycle. The launch and operation of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs created a more established route for capital to enter and exit the market. Even with recent volatility, the report said spot ETFs have seen net outflows of about 7%, a sign that longer-duration institutional holders have not broadly exited.
The note also lists a more crypto-friendly political climate in the U.S., the trend of corporations adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, and rising participation from large asset managers as long-term drivers. Its message is that bearish narratives may be getting amplified, while the infrastructure and capital channels behind Bitcoin remain intact.
Addressing quantum, AI, and balance-sheet concerns
On fears that quantum computing could eventually break Bitcoin cryptography, Bernstein said the issue is a long-range challenge for digital systems in general, not a weakness unique to Bitcoin. Because Bitcoin’s code is open and its ecosystem has substantial resources, the report argues that its defenses could evolve alongside broader financial and technological standards.
The report also pushes back on the idea that an AI-driven economy would leave Bitcoin behind. Instead, it suggests blockchain networks and programmable wallets could serve as machine-readable, cross-border, always-on financial rails for autonomous software agents. That is an area where traditional banking systems, constrained by legacy architecture and API fragmentation, may be less flexible.
Another risk often cited by the market is leverage tied to companies holding large Bitcoin positions, along with forced selling from miners. Bernstein points to Strategy as an example of a company that has reduced near-term pressure through long-duration preferred equity and structured liabilities. According to Strategy CEO Phong Le, the balance sheet would need restructuring only if Bitcoin fell to $8,000 and stayed there for 5 years.
Advertorial material says Maxi Doge presale has raised over $4.58 million
The source article also discussed memecoin project Maxi Doge, but it explicitly identified that section as advertorial content written and provided by the project, not as the publisher’s editorial position. According to the project’s own statement, MAXI is priced at $0.0002803 in presale, and the raise has already exceeded $4.58 million, with the total moving toward the $4.6 million range.
The project presents itself around a memecoin theme built on fitness, extreme energy, and leverage culture. The material says it offers 69% annualized staking rewards, with 5% of total token supply allocated to a staking reward pool. It also says 25% of supply has been reserved for a MAXI fund meant for community competitions, KOL partnerships, brand initiatives, and possible future integrations with leveraged trading platforms.
Based on the source material, Bernstein’s note is centered on Bitcoin’s longer-term support from ETF infrastructure and institutional capital, while Maxi Doge is presented as a presale token trying to capture attention in the memecoin segment. The two appear in the same article, but not on the same footing: one is institutional research, the other is promotional material carrying a clear disclaimer.