Wall Street broker Bernstein said in a Tuesday note that Bitcoin has likely found its bottom and is moving higher, while keeping its $150,000 year-end target intact. Bitcoin was trading near $71,000 at the time of publication.
The note, led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, argued that the recent drawdown looks more like a market reset than a break in the underlying thesis. Bitcoin had surged to record highs in late 2025 before falling as much as 45% from its peak, pressured by a mix of macro conditions and market-specific selling.
Bernstein sees correction as sentiment reset
The analysts pointed to a higher-for-longer rate backdrop, geopolitical risk linked to the Middle East, and intermittent ETF outflows as factors that weighed on risk appetite. At the same time, leveraged positions were unwound and long-term holders took profits. That combination triggered waves of forced liquidations and pushed volatility higher.
Even with the scale of the decline, Bernstein said the move did not resemble the kind of systemic stress seen in earlier crypto downturns. In its view, the correction reflected weaker sentiment rather than a deterioration in fundamentals.
Strategy remains a preferred Bitcoin-linked equity
Bernstein also reiterated its positive stance on Strategy, formerly known by its ticker MSTR, describing the company as a high-beta Bitcoin proxy with a “resilient, liquid and pressure-tested” balance sheet. Led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, Strategy holds about 3.6% of total Bitcoin supply, valued at roughly $53.5 billion.
The broker kept its outperform rating on Strategy and maintained a $450 price target. The stock was little changed in early trading at around $138.10. Bernstein also flagged rising demand for STRC, Strategy’s preferred instrument, which the report said offers an 11.5% monthly dividend with relatively low volatility. Its perpetual structure, according to the note, helps limit equity dilution while supplying long-term capital. Trading volume in STRC rose 65% over the past three months.
Institutional demand stays in focus
On the macro side, Bernstein said Bitcoin has outperformed gold by 25% since the Iran conflict began at the end of February, reinforcing its appeal as a portable and censorship-resistant asset during periods of geopolitical tension. The report also said ETF flows have remained resilient and banks offering Bitcoin-related financial services are becoming more active, keeping institutional demand at the center of the market narrative.