Bernstein says Bitcoin’s latest selloff looks more like a confidence shock than a structural failure. In a March 24 note, the research and brokerage firm said BTC has likely found a cycle bottom and kept its $150,000 year-end 2026 target. With Bitcoin trading near $70,668 at the time of writing, that target implies upside of more than 100%.
Lead analyst Gautam Chhugani called the current move “the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history.” Bernstein’s view is that the market is dealing with a temporary loss of investor conviction, not a breakdown in Bitcoin’s core fundamentals. BTC is still down roughly 40% from its all-time high, but the firm argues that this correction is modest when set against prior cycle drawdowns.
Why Bernstein sees this drawdown as structurally different
The firm’s comparison with earlier cycles is blunt. After Bitcoin peaked near $1,150 in 2013, it went on to suffer an 84% drawdown. The 2017 top around $20,000 was followed by a 77% decline. The 2021 peak near $69,000 led to a correction of about 70%. Against that history, the current retreat of around 40% looks relatively contained.
Bernstein argues the difference is not just about scale. It also comes from market structure. The firm pointed to expanding spot Bitcoin ETF adoption, growing corporate treasury participation, and a U.S. political setting that is broadly seen as more supportive of digital assets. It also noted that the systemic failures that defined 2022 — collapsed exchanges, insolvent lenders, and contagion across the market — are not present in this cycle.
Strategy’s accumulation remains a key support point
One of the strongest data points in Bernstein’s case is Strategy’s continued buying. The company now holds about 3.6% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply, worth roughly $53.5 billion. According to the source material, Strategy has raised $7.3 billion in 2026 alone to expand its Bitcoin treasury.
Bernstein described Strategy as a high-beta Bitcoin vehicle with a balance sheet that remains structurally resilient. In the firm’s scenario analysis, only an extreme case — BTC falling to $8,000 and staying there for five years — would force any balance sheet restructuring.
On-chain signals support the bullish camp, but not everyone agrees
On-chain metrics were also cited in support of the more constructive view. Analyst Ali Charts said Bitcoin is approaching the 0.8 MVRV ratio band, a zone between roughly $56,000 and $60,000. That area has historically acted as a launch point for major rallies. The source listed gains of +963% in 2017, +261% in 2018, +1,126% in 2020, and +660% after the FTX collapse in 2022.
CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan offered a similar reading. He said lower participation and fading retail interest match textbook bear-market conditions, but historically those phases have often aligned with accumulation rather than final exits. On X, he wrote: “A bear market is not a time to give up. It is the time to prepare for the next bull cycle.”
Analysts remain split as $60,000 stays in focus
Not all market voices share Bernstein’s confidence. VanEck CEO Jan VanEck told CNBC in early March that a bottom may be forming, but 2026 still fits Bitcoin’s typical fourth-year bear cycle tied to historical halving patterns. Some traders also argue that if BTC fails to reclaim and hold above $70,000, the market could face another leg lower and revisit $60,000, a level now watched as major structural support.
Bernstein’s $150,000 target was not introduced at current prices. The source said the firm first set it when Bitcoin was trading at much higher levels. Comparable institutional forecasts mentioned in the same report include $150,000 from BSTR President Katherine Dowling and $180,000 from Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse. Over a longer horizon, Bernstein still holds a $1 million Bitcoin target for 2033.