Bitcoin has slid more than 30% from its yearly high, falling from $97,538 on Jan. 15 to about $67,525 at the time of writing. The move has tracked a broad retreat in risk appetite as geopolitical shocks and macro pressure weighed on global markets.
The report tied that backdrop to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff dispute, which carried into the start of the year, and to the war in the Middle East against Iran, which sent ripple effects through energy and financial markets. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance added another layer of pressure. The result has been sharp volatility, not just in crypto but across related equities as well.
Bernstein expects weakness to last until first-quarter earnings
According to Bernstein analysts, crypto-linked stocks including exchanges, brokerages, and tokenization platforms have dropped nearly 60% from recent highs. The firms cited in the report include Coinbase, Robinhood, and Figure. Even with that drawdown, Bernstein argued that these businesses have continued to expand operations through the turbulence.
In a Monday note to clients, the analysts said current market weakness could persist until the release of first-quarter earnings, where a bottom may begin to form. That view points to continued downside risk for Bitcoin in the near term, with the pressure potentially lasting until the end of April.
$65,000 stands out as the near-term line to watch
On the daily chart, Bitcoin has lost support from a key descending trendline that had previously helped bulls hold the market. Technical indicators still lean bearish. MACD has produced a bearish crossover and continued lower, while RSI has been moving inside a descending channel, both suggesting sellers remain in control.
For now, $65,000 is seen as the main psychological support. If Bitcoin breaks sharply below that level, bears could push the price back toward the yearly low near $60,000. On the upside, a rebound above $69,000 would matter because that area aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and could indicate a shift in momentum.
Outperform ratings stay in place despite lower price targets
Bernstein trimmed price targets for some crypto-linked stocks in the latest report, but it kept “outperform” ratings on Coinbase, Robinhood, and Figure. The analysts said the recent selloff reflects macro pressure and weaker market sentiment rather than a breakdown in business fundamentals.
The article also noted that Bernstein still holds a constructive long-term view on those companies, even as the current quarter remains under pressure. It added a standard disclosure that the piece is for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.