According to CoinDesk, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent recently reportedly urged Japan to raise interest rates to curb the yen’s continued decline. The report uses that episode to highlight a contrast between traditional monetary systems and Bitcoin: fiat policy can be shaped by governments and outside pressure, while Bitcoin’s issuance schedule is set in code, follows a fixed rhythm, and halves roughly every four years. That makes Bitcoin’s monetary policy more predictable on paper. Still, the report notes that Bitcoin has not broken free from the pull of traditional markets in the short term. If Japanese rate hikes were to trigger a sharp rebound in the yen, long-built low-rate yen-funded carry trades could unwind, leading to selling across stocks, bonds, and crypto assets. CoinDesk also points to a prior example in August 2024, when a Bank of Japan rate hike strengthened the yen and weighed on risk assets, including Bitcoin. On the technical side, BTC’s 50-day moving average is still rising and nearing a move above the 200-day moving average, which could produce a so-called golden cross. Even so, the report says moving averages are lagging indicators, and the golden cross has shown uneven historical forecasting value when used on its own.
CoinDesk reported that U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent recently reportedly urged Japan to raise interest rates to slow the yen’s continued depreciation. The report presents the episode as a reminder that traditional monetary policy can be vulnerable to government action and outside pressure.
Bitcoin is framed in contrast. Its monetary policy is preset in code, new issuance follows a fixed schedule, and the supply issuance rate is cut roughly every four years through halving. That gives it a higher degree of predictability. Even so, the report says Bitcoin still remains exposed to shocks from traditional financial markets in the near term.
A stronger yen could force carry trades to unwind
CoinDesk said that if Japanese rate hikes were to drive a rapid appreciation in the yen, low-interest yen-funded carry trades built up over a long period could be unwound. That, in turn, could lead to selling in stocks, bonds, and crypto assets.
The report cited August 2024 as an example. At that time, a Bank of Japan rate hike strengthened the yen and put pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.
BTC nears a possible golden cross
On the technical side, BTC’s 50-day moving average is still trending higher and is nearing a move above the 200-day moving average, a setup that could form a golden cross.
But the report adds a note of caution. Moving averages are lagging indicators, and the golden cross has not shown stable historical predictive power when treated as a standalone signal.
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