Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said artificial intelligence could eventually create what he called "true abundance," but warned that society is likely to endure about 20 years of deep disruption before reaching that point. Speaking with Nilay Patel on The Verge's Decoder podcast, Gates said the transition could be comparable to the most turbulent eras in human history, with clear winners and losers along the way.
A long transition before "true abundance"
Gates did not cast himself as an AI doomer. Even so, he said the transition period is his biggest concern. In his view, the next two decades could bring sweeping upheaval across society, even under competent management.
Only after that phase, he said, does it become more plausible to reach "true abundance" — a state in which the supply of most goods and services no longer depends primarily on human labor.
White-collar jobs may be hit first
On white-collar work, Gates singled out telemarketing, phone-based customer service, and accounting. He said those roles could disappear because AI may be able to do the work far more cheaply, faster, and even more accurately.
His broader point was that the scarcity of cognitive skills is set to change. Automation, in his view, will not be limited to simple tasks.
Humanoid robots could reshape blue-collar work
When the discussion turned to blue-collar labor, Gates focused on humanoid robots. If society does not choose to sharply slow or halt development, he said, future robots may be able to build homes, grow food, and perform surgery. At that stage, most goods and services would no longer require human labor as the main input.
Gates also said work has long given people more than income. It provides purpose, a reason to show up each day, relationships with colleagues, and a route to creating and solving problems.
He added that activities such as art, sports, cooking, and parenting may be deliberately left to humans, even if AI could do them better. That outcome, he said, would reflect policy and social choices rather than any technical necessity.
Set against views from Musk, Amodei, and Altman
Business Insider also placed Gates' comments within a broader range of views from tech leaders on AI's effect on employment. Elon Musk has described the transition as "bumpy" and has argued for broad public payouts as one response to AI-driven job losses. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has said AI could raise living standards over the long run, while warning that the short-term shock could be unlike anything seen before.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, by contrast, said around May that AI had not yet wiped out white-collar jobs on the scale he once expected, and that he no longer anticipated a so-called employment apocalypse.
Gates' position puts more weight on the transition itself: even in the best-case scenario, he said, society may still have to get through about two decades of turmoil first.
Tax bases and safety nets may become central issues
The remarks also echo earlier debate around a "robot tax." As labor shifts from humans to machines, questions around how to reset the tax base and redesign social safety nets could become central political and economic issues during the transition.
In this latest discussion, Gates made both sides of the argument clearer: the abundance he believes AI may eventually unlock, and the cost of getting there.
