Bank for International Settlements General Manager Pablo Hernández de Cos said the fast-rising AI investment boom could become a risk to global financial stability if companies fail to deliver the returns investors expect. Speaking in remarks cited by CoinDesk, he said the world’s five largest technology companies plan to spend more than $1 trillion on AI projects in 2025 and 2026, while global AI-related investment could climb from about $500 billion today to $3 trillion-$4 trillion by 2030.
He said capital spending by large AI companies is now running ahead of their own cash flow, with funding relying more heavily on debt and private credit. He also pointed to opaque and interconnected risks tied to what he described as circular financing links among chipmakers, cloud computing giants, and AI firms, including cross-shareholdings and compute purchasing arrangements. Hernández de Cos added that if AI returns fall short of expectations, the current capex boom could turn into an investment pullback, and a sharp correction in concentrated AI-linked stocks could weigh on household consumption through wealth effects and spread internationally because of the large weight of U.S. equities in global markets. He did not say an AI bubble must burst, and noted that AI has shown productivity gains in programming, consulting, and professional writing.
Bank for International Settlements (BIS) General Manager Pablo Hernández de Cos said the rapidly expanding AI investment boom could threaten global financial stability if companies fail to meet the returns investors expect, according to CoinDesk.
Spending plans are accelerating
Hernández de Cos said the five largest technology companies plan to invest more than $1 trillion in AI projects across 2025 and 2026. He also said global AI-related investment is expected to rise from about $500 billion now to $3 trillion-$4 trillion by 2030.
Debt and private credit are taking a larger role
He said capital expenditures at large AI companies are outpacing their own cash flow, with financing increasingly dependent on debt and private credit. He also pointed to "circular financing" ties among chip manufacturers, cloud computing giants, and AI companies, including cross-shareholdings and purchases of computing power. In his view, those risks are opaque and closely interconnected.
Shortfalls in returns could trigger a pullback
He warned that if returns on AI investment come in below expectations, the capex boom could turn into an investment contraction. A steep correction in highly concentrated AI-related stocks could also weigh on household consumption through wealth effects and spread to other economies because U.S. stocks carry significant weight in global markets.
At the same time, Hernández de Cos did not say an AI bubble is certain to burst. He said AI has already shown productivity gains in areas such as programming, consulting, and professional writing, while adding that the scale and speed of the current spending wave, and its dependence on future commercial returns, merit caution.
This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan. Disclaimer:
The market information, project data, and third-party content displayed on this platform are for industry information sharing only and do not constitute any form of investment advice or return commitment.
Cryptocurrency trading carries high risks. Users should fully assess their risk tolerance and make independent decisions. All profits, losses, and legal responsibilities are borne by the users themselves.
