BIT research says Bitcoin is re-entering a bull-market cycle. In its view, BTC had already reached the downside target zone for this bear-market correction and confirmed a cycle bottom after holding above $62,900. The report says the market then gave a stronger signal when Bitcoin crossed above the 21-week moving average at $69,272. BTC has since risen to around $84,000-$86,000, broken above the May 2026 high, and reclaimed the 1-year moving average, while monthly cycle indicators also continue to support the call that the bear market has ended.
Back above the market’s average cost basis
According to the report, the current advance was initially driven by short covering. After Bitcoin moved back above $70,000, the first wave of FOMO began to appear. Price then went on to break the March 2024 high of $73,084, the resistance level formed by the April 2025 tariff announcement, and the May 2026 high, before reclaiming the 1-year moving average.
BIT research says Bitcoin has now recovered the main resistance zone that had capped price action since March 2024. With BTC trading above the 1-year moving average, the probability of a valid breakout has increased.
The report places particular weight on Bitcoin moving back above the average cost basis of all holders, referred to as the True Market Mean, currently around $76,897. With BTC trading in the $84,000-$86,000 range, the market as a whole has returned to profit. The report says historical patterns show that traders sitting on unrealized losses tend to keep closing positions and add to selling pressure. Once the market moves back above the average cost basis, FOMO returns and traders become more willing to add leverage.
Debt model points to a fair value of $105,000
The report also highlights that U.S. federal debt has reached about $40.1 trillion. At the same time, Bitcoin has broken above the downtrend line that had been in place since the October 2025 high after federal debt moved past $40 trillion.
Using current U.S. federal debt of roughly $40.1 trillion, BIT research estimates Bitcoin’s implied fair value at about $105,000. It says price may swing above and below that trend center over time, but continued expansion in debt still provides long-term structural support for Bitcoin.
That said, the report also warns that recent U.S. dollar strength, combined with Bitcoin’s short-term overbought condition, could lead to a period of consolidation.
This cycle’s top may land between $185,000 and $215,000
Looking at the market’s average cost basis, BIT research says historical data suggests Bitcoin bull markets usually do not top until price trades at least 85% above the True Market Mean. Based on the current True Market Mean of $76,897, that would imply a price of about $142,260.
The report says that level should not be treated as the final top. Instead, it marks the minimum threshold for the market to enter a topping phase. As Bitcoin rises further and coins change hands, new buyers enter at higher prices, which pushes the market’s average cost basis higher as well. On that basis, the final top for this cycle should come in above $142,260.
BIT research compares the setup with the previous cycle. It says Bitcoin first reached an 85% premium in March 2024 at around $73,000, then eventually climbed to $126,000, a multiple of about 1.7x. The report adds that this premium multiple has been compressing from cycle to cycle. If it falls to 1.3x-1.5x this time, using roughly $142,000 as the base, the potential top range would be about $185,000-$215,000.
$200,000 is framed as a later-cycle target
Even so, the report does not argue that Bitcoin will quickly reach $200,000 in the near term. In the previous cycle, about 19 months passed between the first 85% premium signal and the final top, and the True Market Mean needed time to catch up with price.
Based on that timeline, BIT research says a top near $200,000 is more likely to be a 2028-2029 event rather than an immediate target.
Overall, the report says Bitcoin has reclaimed both the 21-week and 1-year moving averages, printed a higher high, and pulled the market back above the average cost basis, while monthly cycle indicators confirm the bear market is over. In the short run, dollar strength and overbought conditions may bring a phase of consolidation. Over a longer horizon, the U.S. debt model gives a fair value of $105,000, the True Market Mean framework sets a minimum cycle target of $142,260, and the final top could fall in the $185,000-$215,000 range.
The article also notes that some of these views come from BIT on Target, and says the full report is available on request.
Disclaimer: Markets carry risk, and investors should act with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can involve significant risk and instability. Investment decisions should be made only after considering personal circumstances and consulting financial professionals. BIT does not take responsibility for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.