BIT analysts, in the firm’s weekly "On Target" report cited by ChainCatcher, said two macro factors are standing out in the current market: U.S. debt has moved past the psychological $40 trillion mark, and U.S. Treasury yields are approaching the 5% level. The report said price action since July 24 has matched that view, with Bitcoin up 22% and gold up 9.4% over the period.
BIT’s macro cycle model places the market in the first phase of cyclical reflation, a period the report said is usually associated with a weaker U.S. dollar and stronger commodities. It also cited historical returns for that phase, putting annualized returns at about 29% for U.S. equities, 47% for gold and 73% for Bitcoin.
The report added that from 2020 to 2026, the compound annual growth rate of U.S. debt reached 8.59%, while M2 money supply grew at a 6.02% CAGR, both above CPI at 4.11%. According to BIT, that points to long-term inflation pressure continuing to build and supports the allocation case for gold and Bitcoin.
According to ChainCatcher, BIT analysts said in the firm’s weekly "On Target" report that two factors are acting as key catalysts in the market: U.S. debt has exceeded the psychological $40 trillion threshold, and U.S. Treasury yields are nearing the 5% level.
The report said Bitcoin has gained 22% since July 24, while gold has risen 9.4%, which it said supports its earlier view.
Macro model points to the first stage of cyclical reflation
BIT said its macro cycle model shows the market is now in the first stage of cyclical reflation. In the report’s framework, that phase is typically accompanied by a weaker U.S. dollar and higher commodity prices.
It cited historical data showing that in this phase, annualized returns are about 29% for U.S. stocks, 47% for gold and 73% for Bitcoin.
Debt and money supply growth outpacing CPI
The report also said that from 2020 to 2026, the compound annual growth rate of U.S. debt reached 8.59%, while M2 money supply posted a 6.02% CAGR, both well above CPI at 4.11%. BIT said long-term inflation pressure continues to build, supporting the allocation rationale for gold and Bitcoin.
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