As the Federal Open Market Committee’s December meeting approaches, markets are pricing in an 85% probability of a quarter-point rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. For Bitcoin, which has been trading below the psychologically important $100,000 mark since early November, the question is whether a dovish pivot by the Fed can ignite a year-end Santa rally powerful enough to push the cryptocurrency back into six-figure territory.
Standard Chartered’s Prophetic Dip
Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, correctly predicted that Bitcoin would fall below $100,000 last month. What he got wrong was how persistent the dip would prove. “It may be the last time Bitcoin is EVER below 100k,” Kendrick said at the time. Instead, BTC tumbled all the way to $80,000 and has struggled to recover since. But now, a potential December rate cut could be the bullish catalyst that finally lifts Bitcoin above the six-figure barrier.
On Friday, New York Fed President John Williams provided a strong signal that the central bank is leaning toward lowering rates at its final policy meeting of the year. “I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate,” Williams said. That single sentence lifted both stocks and Bitcoin, reinforcing the market’s rate-cut expectations.
Hassett Emerges as Leading Fed Chair Candidate
Adding to the bullish narrative, Bloomberg reported Tuesday that Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council under President Donald Trump, has emerged as the frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair when Powell’s term ends in May. Hassett is known as a Trump loyalist and has publicly endorsed the president's vision of lower interest rates. “I think that the president thinks rates could be a lot lower, and I agree with him on that,” Hassett said in a Bloomberg interview just two weeks ago.
While the Fed’s independence is sacrosanct, Hassett’s potential appointment—if confirmed—would bring a more accommodationist tone to monetary policy, further boosting risk assets including Bitcoin.
AI Optimism Fuels Broader Risk Appetite
Beyond rate cuts, a wave of tech optimism has swept Wall Street. Google’s launch of Gemini 3, its most advanced AI model, was greeted with enthusiasm, as the company’s methodical approach to AI development helped dispel fears of a speculative bubble. The major U.S. stock indices rallied to new highs, reflecting a broader shift toward risk-on sentiment. This environment historically benefits Bitcoin, which tends to correlate with equities during periods of monetary easing and strong economic optimism.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s immediate technical picture remains fragile. As of writing, the digital asset was trading at $86,413.29, down 2.46% over the past 24 hours and 7.29% over the past week, according to CoinMarketCap. Intraday volatility was relatively low, with the price oscillating between $86,131.43 and $89,206.34. Daily trading volume fell 12.07% to $65.3 billion, and market capitalization slipped to $1.73 trillion. Bitcoin dominance eased 0.22% to 58.64%, indicating slightly underperformance relative to altcoins.
Futures & Liquidations Paint a Cautious Picture
Coinglass data shows total Bitcoin futures open interest declined nearly 3% to $59.24 billion. Liquidations over the past 24 hours totaled $99.26 million, with long positions accounting for $58.78 million and shorts losing $40.48 million. The relatively even split and subdued volatility suggest the market is waiting for a definitive catalyst. The December FOMC decision could be exactly that.
So, will Bitcoin hit $100,000 again by Christmas? Nothing is guaranteed, but the confluence of a near-certain Fed rate cut, a dovish chair candidate, and renewed risk appetite across both tech and crypto markets significantly improves the odds. As Kendrick noted, this might indeed be the last time we see Bitcoin below $100,000—if the bulls can seize the moment.