Odaily, citing CoinDesk, reported that Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo said Bitcoin briefly traded below its 200-week moving average twice in the past two weeks. In both instances, BTC rebounded quickly and moved back above the level. Bitcoin is currently priced at about $63,900, slightly above the 200-week moving average of around $62,358.
Bitcoin moves back above the 200-week average
The 200-week simple moving average, or 200-week SMA, is used as a long-term reference point for Bitcoin’s price position. According to Perfumo, BTC’s recent moves below the line were short-lived rather than sustained. The report said historical data has often shown significant long-term buying opportunities when Bitcoin falls below its 200-week SMA, with median returns from that zone exceeding 100%.
Historical returns, drawdowns and recovery time
Perfumo said that since 2017, trading days on which Bitcoin closed below the 200-week moving average have accounted for only about 10% of all trading days. He described those moments as “exceptionally attractive” long-term entry points. Buying BTC near that level has historically produced a median return of about 113% over the following year, while the two-year median return has reached 313%.
The Kraken economist also noted that investors historically did not have to endure unrealized losses for an extended period after buying near the 200-week moving average. The median time to break even was only about two days, while the median maximum drawdown over the following year was about 9%. Perfumo stressed, however, that past performance does not guarantee future returns. His point was that historical data shows Bitcoin has often carried higher long-term value in that price range.