On-chain analyst Murphy said that nearly all bitcoin bought in 2025 has been held at a loss since purchase. Excluding wallet migration, recent declines in the 2025 cohort's supply likely reflect selling at a loss. Data cited by Murphy shows the remaining BTC acquired in 2025 stands at about 4.77 million coins, down 41.5% from the December peak. The drawdown came in two stages: a rapid decrease before February and a slower, but steady, decline after that. Murphy believes the 2025 cohort could be the largest potential supply overhang in the current market. By comparison, coins formed in 2022, 2023 and 2024 remain in profit, so overhead supply has largely been flushed out and the curve is flattening, which points to easing sell pressure from long-term holders. Historical bear-market bottoms show similar patterns. At the 2022 bottom, coins bought at the 2021 highs fell by around 51%; at the 2018 bottom, 2017 high-level coins fell by about 62%. If history offers a guide, Murphy sees a possible 50%-60% decline in 2025 high-level chips by the bottom of this cycle. The current 41.5% drawdown suggests more room remains. But the estimate does not account for BTC bought by spot ETFs and MicroStrategy, most of which is locked up long term and could reduce actual market supply pressure.
Almost all 2025 BTC positions are underwater
According to ChainCatcher, on-chain analyst Murphy says almost all bitcoin positions opened in 2025 are now underwater. Excluding wallet migration, declining supply from the 2025 group is likely a sign that holders are selling at a loss.
Data shows that BTC bought in 2025 still remaining is about 4.77 million coins, down 41.5% from the December peak. Murphy's data divides the drop into two phases: chips decreased quickly before February, and after that the decline slowed but still carried a visible downward slope.
Potential supply overhang
Murphy argues that the 2025 cohort could be the largest potential supply source in the current market. In contrast, positions formed in 2022, 2023 and 2024 still have unrealized gains. Their high-level trapped supply has basically been released, and the flattening downward slope means sell pressure from long-term holders is weakening.
What past bear-market bottoms show
Historical data shows that high-level chips dropped sharply in the previous two bear-market bottoms. At the 2022 bear-market bottom, the 2021 high-level buying group shrank by about 51%. At the 2018 bottom, 2017 high-level chips fell by about 62%.
If historical cycles are a reference, Murphy believes the 2025 high-level chips could fall by 50%-60% by the bottom of this cycle. The 41.5% decline so far suggests there is still room for further reduction.
Variables in the estimate
The judgment has not yet factored in BTC bought by spot ETFs, MicroStrategy and other institutions. Most of those positions remain locked for the long term and could lower actual market supply pressure.
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