By April 2026, Bitcoin had crashed from its all-time high of $126,000 set in October 2025 to the $68,500–$69,000 range, following the precise script of its halving-coded four-year cycle. The current correction, now lasting 12 months, mirrors past bear markets that follow each reward halving.
Halving Code Drives the 4-Year Cycle
The four-year rhythm is hardcoded into Bitcoin's source code. Every 210,000 blocks (roughly every four years), the miner reward is halved, creating a supply shock that historically triggers a bull run within 12–18 months and then a protracted bear decline. This mechanism fired most recently in April 2024, after which Bitcoin peaked at $126K in late 2025.
The subsequent decline has been swift: a roughly 48% drawdown from the peak places the current price at the same level as the 2021 all-time high, a key psychological line. The 12-month selloff has erased most of the gains from the post-halving rally.
Four Stages and a 'Liquidity Sweep' Threat
Each cycle unfolds in four phases: accumulation (post-crash bargain hunting), pre-bull buildup (halving anticipation), parabolic peak (euphoric all-time highs), and bear market (profit-taking and shakeout). The market is squarely in the fourth stage. Analyst Tony Research warns of a pending liquidity sweep that could briefly push Bitcoin below $50,000, noting that historical cycle lows occur roughly 18 months after the halving — meaning late 2026 might mark the true bottom.
ETFs and Institutions: A Milder Bear?
The cast of characters has changed: BlackRock, Fidelity, and other ETF issuers now hold large Bitcoin positions, while banks increasingly engage in OTC desks. Institutional long-term holders might soften the depth of the drawdown compared to 2018 (84% crash) or 2022 (77% crash). Still, the timing remains locked to the halving calendar. If the $69K support breaks, the next major battleground sits near $50K. Tony Research's liquidity sweep, if realized, could offer patient buyers an ideal entry before the next accumulation phase begins in 2027.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.