Bitcoin (BTC) bulls have regained control. Glassnode's latest report shows BTC has successfully reclaimed the $80,000 mark, breaking through two key on-chain cost levels. Supported by renewed buying in US spot ETFs, the market now eyes the next major resistance at $85,000. Meanwhile, derivatives markets signal tension: extreme negative funding rates and a $2 billion short gamma cluster near $82,000 could ignite another short squeeze.
Two Lines Recovered: True Market Mean and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis
Glassnode data indicates that Bitcoin's rally broke through the True Market Mean (~$78,200) and the short-term holder cost basis (~$79,100). These levels represent the average acquisition price of all actively traded supply over the past 155 days and recent buyers' average cost. If the price can stabilize above these levels in the coming week, the "deep value regime" that started in early February 2026 could become one of the shortest troughs in Bitcoin history. The next structural resistance lies at $85,200, the Active Realized Price.
Long-Term Holders Book Modest Profits; ETF Inflows Surge
Profitability indicators have turned positive across the board. The 30-day moving average of net realized profit/loss flipped positive, reaching 0.003% of market cap. Long-term holders (LTH) have started taking profits, but daily realized profits stand at about $180 million — modest compared to over $1 billion per day during the cycle peak. More importantly, US spot Bitcoin ETF 30-day net flows have turned sharply positive, signaling resurgent appetite from traditional institutional investors and providing support for the spot price above $80,000.
Derivatives Flash Warning: Negative Funding Rates and $2B Short Gamma
While spot markets thrive, derivatives tell a different story — a setup that often fuels explosive moves. Negative funding rates indicate persistent short positioning: perpetual swap funding remains negative as traders pay to hold short exposure, creating a "wall of worry" that primes a squeeze. Options skew has converged toward neutral, especially the 1-week front end near zero, showing declining demand for downside protection. Most critically, nearly $2 billion in short gamma exposure sits near the $82,000 strike. As price approaches this zone, dealers are forced to buy high and sell low to hedge, triggering a feedback loop that can cause volatile overshooting.
Glassnode concludes that Bitcoin's current trend carries constructive bullish momentum, but the market is entering a reaction period highly sensitive to price action. To confirm a more durable bull continuation, sustained spot buying is needed to absorb the still-elevated daily realized losses of $479 million.