Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, in its latest report, states that Bitcoin's price is currently at the lower edge of its short-term holder cost basis range of $60,000 to $70,000. Significant supply accumulation has emerged within this zone, but the density is far below what was seen in historically analogous scenarios that preceded strong recoveries. "The accumulation pattern is constructive in shape, but the magnitude has not kept pace," the report reads.
Heatmap shows weaker accumulation density compared to prior bands
Glassnode's short-term holder cost basis distribution heatmap (September 2025 to March 2026) clearly illustrates the evolution of accumulation density. In October 2025, BTC formed a dense cluster of orange-red chips around $120,000-$125,000, representing the main cost basis for market participants at that time. As the price fell, another distinct red horizontal band appeared near $85,000, corresponding to heavy accumulation between November 2025 and January 2026. After the accelerated decline in February 2026, BTC entered the current trading range of $65,000-$70,000. The heatmap shows faint yellow and green accumulation signals at this level, with color intensity notably weaker than the two earlier bands.
429,000 BTC accumulated — a high-conviction support zone, but not enough
As of end-February, over 429,000 BTC had been accumulated in the $60,000-$70,000 range, representing more than 8% of the non-exchange circulating supply. Glassnode's Week 12 report characterized this zone as a "high-conviction support area" while warning that volatility pressure may persist above $70,000. On the institutional side, Bernstein published a report on March 24 stating that Bitcoin "may have bottomed" and maintained a $150,000 target. JPMorgan argued that Bitcoin has passed its "digital gold" qualification test. However, these are medium- to long-term frameworks with limited guidance for short-term price action. The options market offers another near-term reference: market makers hold short gamma positions between $70,000 and $75,000, meaning volatility could accelerate if prices enter that band. According to CoinGlass, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index today (March 29) stands at 8, having rarely exceeded 20 over the past two months.
This is not investment advice.