Bitcoin saw another sharp drop on July 1, escalating market fear. According to Coinglass, the Ahr999 HODL indicator officially broke below the widely recognized 0.45 buying line, currently at 0.42. This marks the first time since mid-October 2023 — a gap of about 840 days — that such an extreme undervaluation signal has appeared.
The Ahr999 indicator is calculated as (current price / 200-day cost) × (current price / exponential growth estimate). A reading below 0.45 means BTC's price has deviated significantly from its long-term dollar-cost averaging cost and growth trend, entering the so-called 'super cheap zone'.
Risk of Bottom 'Stalling' Cannot Be Ignored
Despite the rare buy signal, analysts caution that historical data shows buying near 0.45 is good for mid-to-long-term positions, but the bottom may 'stall' — meaning the price could linger at low levels for a while without an immediate rebound. Heavy short-term positions are not advisable.
Rainbow Chart Enters Buy Zone
Another widely used tool, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, entered the blue 'fire sale' zone in late January for the first time in over a year, aligning with the Ahr999 signal. However, if BTC enters a bear market, analysts warn the price could hit the bottom of the blue zone, possibly approaching $70,000.
With ETF outflows persisting and sentiment low, investors should monitor ETF flows and USDT lending rates. Treating Ahr999 and rainbow chart as reference points for value investing — not a short-term rebound guarantee — may be the more prudent approach.