After a brutal $700 billion selloff last week, Bitcoin has clawed back to $69,875, still 44% below its all-time high. This week's lineup of macro events could set the tone for crypto's next move.
Tuesday: Delayed December Retail Sales
The December retail sales report, delayed by the government shutdown, is expected at 0.4% month-over-month, down from 0.6% in November. Weaker consumer spending could push forward expectations for rate cuts.
Wednesday: January Jobs Report — The Big One
Nonfarm payrolls are forecast at 80,000, up from 50,000 in December. Unemployment is expected to hold at 4.4%. CNBC's Jim Cramer called it directly: "The most important thing is the Labor Department's nonfarm payroll report on Wednesday. If that comes in soft, it means the Fed can keep cutting rates." Soft jobs data would be bullish for crypto; a strong number would have the opposite effect.
Thursday: Coinbase Earnings Reflect Market Health
Coinbase reports earnings on Thursday, offering a ground-level view of how the downturn has hit trading volumes and revenue. Robinhood reports Tuesday, with crypto revenue expected down 28% to $259 million, even as overall revenue rises 34%.
Friday: January CPI Inflation Caps the Week
January's Consumer Price Index is expected to show year-over-year inflation cooling to 2.5% from 2.7%. However, core CPI month-over-month is projected at 0.31%, up from 0.20% in December. BofA economists see inflation picking up early 2026. The Fed still views inflation as "somewhat elevated." A hot CPI reading would push rate cut hopes further out.
Five Fed Speakers Add to the Mix
Governor Christopher Waller, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, and Governor Stephen Miran all speak this week. Markets currently price no rate cut until June, with two quarter-point cuts expected by December. Senior strategist Angelo Kourkafas at Edward Jones said, "We'll see if any weakness in labor market data or a surprising cool-down in inflation accelerates the timeline for the next rate cut."
What Crypto Traders Should Watch
Weak jobs data and cooling inflation would strengthen the case for rate cuts, giving Bitcoin and altcoins room to bounce. Strong economic numbers or hawkish Fed commentary would likely keep pressure on crypto prices. After a major wipeout, this week's data could determine whether crypto finds a floor or keeps falling.