Analysts point to possible late-stage bear market conditions
Bitcoin has fallen back to around $62,000 as the escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions weighed on the market, but some analysts say the current bear market could end between September and October this year, earlier than broad market expectations.
Trader Ryker said the market generally expects the next bull cycle to begin in 2027. His view is that market makers tend to position in advance, so he expects Bitcoin to start climbing in September or October this year.
Weekly death cross draws attention
Trader Jelle said Bitcoin has already formed a weekly death cross. He argued that the signal has historically appeared near the end of bear markets, suggesting the market may have entered a new accumulation phase.
Short-term pressure remains. Analysts said $64,000 is still the key resistance level, and if Bitcoin fails to break above it, the price could slide toward $57,800.
Macro data and geopolitics stay in focus this week
The market is also watching for June CPI and PPI data from the United States this week, along with testimony to Congress from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. At the same time, the worsening U.S.-Iran conflict and rising tension around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up oil prices and inflation expectations, which could keep weighing on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
CryptoQuant flags heavy selling by mid-sized holders
On-chain data from CryptoQuant showed that addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC posted net sales of about 67,000 BTC on July 13. The firm said that was the largest distribution by that cohort since February this year.
CryptoQuant also said similar distribution behavior has often appeared shortly before price rebounds. Even so, it added that the current signal is not enough on its own to confirm a market bottom, though it is approaching a historical zone where mid-sized investor behavior has tended to shift in a major way.