Bitcoin may have just gone through its shortest and shallowest bear market since 2013, if the June 30, 2026 low ultimately proves to be the cycle bottom.
BlockTempo, citing bitcoin financial services firm River, reported that the downturn would have lasted 267 days with a 52% drawdown under that scenario. River said in its Sept. 23 newsletter that bitcoin had climbed nearly 50% from its June low, including a gain of more than 10% over the previous week, making the end of the bear market look more plausible. That call, however, still depends on whether the low holds over time.
River’s comparison across four bear markets
Five days after the newsletter, River posted a chart titled Bitcoin bear markets in the Reddit forum r/Bitcoin. The post drew both support and skepticism.
The chart compared four bitcoin bear markets:
- 2013 to 2015: down 85% over 406 days
- 2017 to 2018: down 84% over 362 days
- 2021 to 2022: down 77% over 378 days
- 2025 to 2026: down 52% over 267 days
If the June 30 low stands, the current cycle would be not only less severe than the prior three but also almost 100 days shorter than the previous shortest bear market in River’s comparison.
CoinGecko daily data matched the 267-day count
According to the report, the author checked CoinGecko daily data and found that the cycle peak came on Oct. 6, 2025, with a daily close of about $124,700 and an intraday all-time high near $126,000. The low came on June 30, 2026, when bitcoin closed at $58,566.
That puts exactly 267 days between the peak and trough, in line with River’s chart. Using closing prices, the drawdown comes to about 53%, close to River’s 52% figure.
River said the rebound came after negative news and looked supply-driven
River described the rebound as somewhat counterintuitive.
On Sept. 15, the U.S. Senate voted on cloture for the CLARITY Act. The motion failed 49-50, leaving it 11 votes short of the 60-vote threshold. River said that result likely left the bill with little chance in 2026. Bitcoin briefly fell 4% at the time, then continued higher.
The next day, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points at its FOMC meeting, taking the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. It was the first rate hike since 2023. All 12 votes supported the move, and the median dot plot showed one more hike this year.
River’s point was that bitcoin kept rising even after those developments, which in its view weakens the case for a demand-led move.
The firm cited several demand-side readings:
- Exchange trading volume was 30% lower than at the start of the year
- Bitcoin ETFs bought about 18,000 BTC in September through Sept. 23
- That pace was below the monthly average since the products launched in 2024
Based on those figures, River said demand had not clearly improved and that the rally was being driven by tighter supply.
Long-term holders and dormant coins were central to the supply argument
River said 81% of circulating bitcoin had not moved for at least six months. It also said long-term holders have accumulated more than 3 million BTC since 2020.
The firm cited Galaxy Research data showing that nearly 4 million BTC dormant for more than three years moved during 2024 and 2025. In the first half of 2026, that figure dropped to about 300,000 BTC.
River’s conclusion was that prior selling pressure had already been absorbed by the market and was fading, leaving available supply tighter and helping push prices higher.
Reddit users pushed back on the shallow-bear narrative
Some Reddit users argued that a milder bear market may say less about market strength and more about the weakness of the preceding bull run. They noted that this cycle’s high near $126,000 was still less than double the previous cycle high of $69,000. Without a late-stage blow-off move, they argued, an 80% collapse was less likely to follow.
Others compared returns from one cycle bottom to the next. By that measure, this cycle delivered only about 3.7x, versus roughly 5x, 18x and 83x in earlier cycles.
There were also comments questioning the trend itself. One argument was that every bear market has been the shallowest at some point because drawdowns have generally narrowed over time. Another was that the sample size is only four cycles, and if the pattern were fully repeatable, traders would have front-run and arbitraged it away.
Bitcoin was still down for 2026, and River said demand has not returned yet
Bitcoin had not turned positive for the year as of Sept. 30. The report said bitcoin started 2026 at about $87,600 and was trading near $83,400 on Sept. 30, leaving it down about 5% year to date. One comment noted that bitcoin would need to get back above roughly $88,000 by year-end for the annual candle to turn green.
River itself acknowledged that demand has not yet returned. The firm said no one can predict when demand will come back to the market and that prices could still swing sharply along the way. In River’s framing, supply has already tightened; what is missing is a real increase in demand. Only when that demand returns would the next bull market truly begin.