Prominent trader Killa says historical data across multiple Bitcoin bull-bear cycles shows bear market depth is shrinking, suggesting the current cycle's bottom may already be in place. He dismisses the "$50,000 October" scenario some sidelined investors expect, but warns a drop to $61,000 could trigger up to $20 billion in long liquidations.
ChainCatcher — Well-known trader Killa said in a post tonight that data across several Bitcoin bull-bear cycles shows bear markets are getting progressively shallower, and the bottom of the current cycle may already be in place. He called the "drop to $50,000 in October" scenario, which some sidelined investors are waiting for, "almost impossible."
However, Killa also pointed out that if Bitcoin falls to $61,000, the expected value of long position liquidations could reach $20 billion. Market makers have both the motivation and the possibility of liquidating longs before rebuilding positions.
Killa, a quant trader focused on BTC, predicted the top of the current bull market in May 2025 and has more than 200,000 followers on X. In mid-April, he shorted Bitcoin at $74,688, then turned long on June 5 during the broad market decline.
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