Bitcoin Breaks Below $60K as Institutional ETF Outflows and Spot Selling Dominate
Bitcoin has come under sustained selling pressure, falling below the psychologically important $60,000 level. The decline is driven primarily by two factors: persistent outflows from institutional exchange-traded funds (ETFs), particularly Grayscale's GBTC, and intensified spot market selling. GBTC's ongoing discount and redemption pressures have prompted institutional investors to reduce exposure, adding to the sell-side flow. Meanwhile, spot markets lack fresh buying support, leading to a stepwise decline in price.
Net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs have continued for several weeks, reflecting a cautious near-term stance among traditional financial institutions. This selling not only depresses the price but triggers a negative feedback loop, with miners and some long-term holders also joining the selling. The cumulative effect has been a steady erosion of market confidence and further downward pressure.
On-Chain Data Reveals a Support Zone: Realized Price at $53,400
Despite the price decline, on-chain metrics offer a glimmer of hope for bottom formation. The Bitcoin realized price—the average cost basis of all coins moved on-chain—currently stands at approximately $53,400. This level has historically served as a crucial support during both bull and bear cycles. When market price falls below realized price, the entire market is underwater, often attracting value-seeking buyers who view the dip as an accumulation opportunity.
Another key indicator is the short-term holder (STH) cost basis, which has dropped to $71,400. This decline reflects that recent buyers have been able to accumulate at lower prices, suggesting that fresh capital is entering the market in this cheap zone. Historically, when the spot price trades below the STH cost basis, selling pressure tends to diminish as new holders are reluctant to sell at a loss, paving the way for a potential bottom. The combination of these two on-chain levels points to $53,400–$71,400 as a broad support area.
Macro Headwinds: Strong Dollar and Steady Bond Yields
The macroeconomic environment remains unfavorable for Bitcoin. The U.S. Dollar Index has strengthened significantly in recent weeks, putting pressure on risk assets including cryptocurrencies and commodities. Simultaneously, U.S. Treasury yields have held steady, enhancing the appeal of risk-free assets and siphoning capital away from speculative investments. This backdrop makes a swift Bitcoin rebound challenging in the near term. Market participants will need to monitor dollar momentum and any policy shifts that could serve as catalysts for a change in trend.