Bitcoin is trading below the short-term holder (STH) cost basis, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. In an X post, he described that basis as the average purchase price of coins held for less than 155 days. As of Aug. 8, 2026, bitcoin traded at $64,952 while the STH realized price was $67,523. The gap between price and realized price came to $2,571, leaving the spot price 3.8% below that level and marking the tightest spread since July 21. Adler also noted that bitcoin closed below the STH realized price on 279 of the past 284 days. He said this time probably will not be an exception. Short-term holders, in his view, will start selling into the market to exit around breakeven. That outlook is based on the gap that remains despite recent tightening. The data, posted on X and carried by ChainCatcher, focuses on the average entry point of bitcoin owners whose holding period is shorter than 155 days.
Bitcoin is still trading below the cost basis of short-term holders, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.
Adler laid out the comparison in a post on X. The STH cost basis, he explained, is the average purchase price of bitcoin held for less than 155 days. As of Aug. 8, 2026, spot was trading at $64,952, while the short-term holder realized price stood at $67,523. That put the market 3.8% below the cost basis. The gap between the two figures was $2,571, the narrowest since July 21.
The analyst also placed the current reading in a longer time frame. Over the past 284 days, bitcoin has closed below the short-term holder realized price on 279 days. Adler argues this stretch will likely follow the same path. Short-term holders, he said, will start selling into the market so they can exit positions around breakeven.
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