Geoffrey Kendrick, head of cryptocurrency research at Standard Chartered, argued in a note last Friday that Bitcoin's drop to approximately $59,000 likely marked the low point of the current cycle. The call comes after months of dampened sentiment driven by geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, and persistent outflows from US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Three Conditions Met: Strategy Buys Again, ETF Inflows Return, Oil Drops
Kendrick identified three key requirements for greater confidence in the bottom: a resumption of Bitcoin purchases by the firm Strategy, renewed net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, and continued weakness in oil prices. All three materialized in quick succession last week. Strategy announced an additional purchase of 1,587 BTC. On Friday, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $86 million in net inflows. Meanwhile, oil prices kept declining, easing concerns about energy-driven inflation and rising bond yields.
Summing up the shift, Kendrick stated: “Winter has ended, spring has returned for crypto.”
ETF Flows and Price Threshold: $83K Is the Line to Beat
Since their January 2024 launch, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have become major demand drivers. Kendrick noted the recent sell-off was among the most severe since these products debuted. He also dismissed the theory that investors were cashing out for a potential SpaceX IPO as based on limited evidence.
Broader recovery signs are emerging: easing of certain US crypto derivatives regulations last month, increased institutional involvement, and Kraken launching perpetual futures for US clients. Bitcoin continues to attract publicly traded companies seeking balance-sheet exposure. Despite some observers pointing to lower highs in recent rally attempts, Kendrick maintains that a decisive break above $83,000—last seen in early May—is required to confirm a renewed bull trend.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded at $66,300, up 1% in 24 hours.
Coinbase CEO Weighs In: Bottom Near $60K
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong echoed similar sentiments on Monday. He expressed belief that Bitcoin may have found its bottom around $60,000 and remained positive on the cryptocurrency's prospects. As the largest US exchange, Coinbase is closely watched as a bellwether by both institutional and retail investors.