Bitcoin (BTC $64,168) has rebounded from recent lows below $60,000, but technical analysts say the bottom is not in. Crypto data firm Material Indicators points to the 14-week relative strength index (RSI) and its key level of 41.5 as the dividing line between bull and bear phases. Right now, the indicator is below that line and trending lower.
41.5: A Historical Bull-Bear Separator
The RSI ranges from 0 to 100, with 70+ signaling overbought and 30- signaling oversold. Material Indicators' data shows that 41.5 has consistently separated Bitcoin's bull and bear cycles across multiple epochs. During the bull run from January 2024 to November 2025, the weekly RSI held above 41.5 — the same pattern seen in the 2020-21 and 2015-17 uptrends. Conversely, the worst bear phases (late 2018, May-December 2022, and recent months) saw the RSI trade below that level.
Analyst: Burden of Proof Still on Bulls
“Right now, Bitcoin is below it, and still trending down,” said Keith Alan, analyst at Material Indicators. “That does not mean price has to collapse, but it does mean the burden of proof is still on the bulls.” He likened a price bounce to green shoots in a recession — exciting but not definitive until quarterly GDP confirms expansion. Traders wait for RSI to reclaim 41.5 before calling a new bull run.
Next Key Level: 31.89
Alan also flagged the previous weekly RSI reading of 31.89. If the indicator falls below that level, it would signal further price losses ahead. For now, Bitcoin's weekly RSI remains above 31.89 but below 41.5, leaving the trend bearish. Any recovery above 41.5 would be the first meaningful confirmation that the macro tide has turned.