Eric Krown, a former New York Stock Exchange Arca options market maker who now trades crypto full time, said Bitcoin’s next major move should be judged through a cluster of high-timeframe signals rather than a single headline price. Speaking on Crypto Banter’s Risk Takers with host Alessandro, Krown said a monthly close above $63,735 would lift his confidence to roughly 85% that a macro bottom is in the process of forming.
The episode aired on July 19, 2026. The MarsBit article said the conversation was compiled and translated by TechFlow. Krown disclosed that he bought spot BTC slightly above $60,000 and also runs paid trading courses and exchange affiliate links, including ByBit and BloFin. The program was described as technical analysis only, with no promotion of specific tokens.
Bitcoin priced against M2
Alessandro opened by asking whether Krown still held the view he shared a month earlier: that if Bitcoin kept moving around the $60,000 area into summer, the chart would start to look constructive. Krown said yes, and added that his confidence had moved close to 85% that a macro low could be confirmed by the end of the month.
He first turned to a chart he believes the market largely ignores: BTC divided by M2 money supply. In his framing, that removes part of the inflation distortion and gives a cleaner way to compare cycle lows across time. Many traders are still waiting for Bitcoin to revisit the $40,000 to $50,000 area in nominal terms, he said, but the M2-adjusted picture tells a different story.
Krown compared the setup with 2022. Back then, many market participants were calling for $10,000 or even $8,000 Bitcoin. On his M2-adjusted chart, he said, BTC had already reached what was effectively the equivalent of $10,000 by November 2022. He said at the time on his own channel that anyone waiting for $10,000 to $11,000 had already seen that target on an inflation-adjusted basis.
He argued that the same logic applies now. If Bitcoin is measured against money supply, he said, it has already retested the equivalent of the August 2024 flash-crash low at $49,270. In his view, traders looking for a sub-$50,000 reading have effectively already received it, but through a different yardstick. He added that money supply has risen 40% to 50% since 2020, while many still evaluate asset prices as if the dollar were fixed.
Alessandro said he had used the BTC/M2 chart before to show that Bitcoin remains one of the few assets still making higher highs and higher lows against money supply, while the S&P 500 and gold have looked weaker on that basis. Krown agreed and said even the S&P only recently broke above its 1999 high when viewed through the same lens.
The first hard level: $63,735 on the monthly 55 EMA
Krown then moved to the price levels he sees as most actionable. The simplest one, he said, is the 55 EMA on the monthly chart. Historically, he described that line as a key level for confirming Bitcoin macro lows.
He pointed back to 2022, when Bitcoin spent about half a year below that average before reclaiming it. Once it got back above, he said, the bull market effectively began there. In 2018, he said, BTC only lost the level for two monthly closes before recovering it and then rallying sharply. He also cited 2015 and 2014 as earlier periods where the same average acted as a base-building reference point, though he noted the data set gets thinner further back.
For the current month, the number he is watching is $63,735. A monthly close above that level would mean Bitcoin has reclaimed the 55 EMA. He said price was already trading around that zone and that there were still 11 to 12 trading days left in the month, making the signal easy to monitor in real time.
Krown said even traders with a bearish bias would at least need to acknowledge that such a reclaim likely marks a major low, with Bitcoin then likely to rebound above $70,000. On shorter timeframes, he said he would also like to see a close above the $65,500 high. In his framework, $63,735 is the first monthly trigger, while $65,500 would strengthen the short-term case.
Monthly MACD, RSI and stochastic signals are lining up
Krown said the 55 EMA is only one part of the picture. He also pointed to a rare alignment between monthly MACD, RSI and the stochastic oscillator.
On MACD, he said the monthly chart is starting to show fading downside momentum. July produced what he called the first “awesome momentum signal,” with the prior instance appearing in April. Looking back, he said that when monthly MACD momentum begins to weaken, the low has either already printed or is close enough that entering the market generally works out well. He cited 2015, when the low was already in, and 2019, when the reversal came almost on the same bar. Even in 2022, he said, buying at the MACD signal would have put a trader only one month early despite the later FTX collapse.
RSI tells a similar story in his reading. Krown said the monthly RSI is now roughly at the same level as the 2022 bottom, possibly slightly lower, and below readings seen at previous Bitcoin macro lows. For him, that matters because multiple momentum oscillators are confirming the same setup at once.
The stochastic oscillator adds a second price trigger. Krown said the monthly stochastic has already entered oversold territory below 20, which he treats as a low signal. The next step is an upward cross. He said he has tracked the data back to 2012 and that each time the monthly stochastic crossed up from that area, the low was already in place.
He then translated that into a specific closing level: if Bitcoin ends the month at $64,371 or higher, that upward stochastic cross should be forced into place. That leaves two trigger levels very close together: $63,735 for the 55 EMA reclaim and $64,371 for the stochastic confirmation. Add the MACD momentum shift and depressed RSI, he said, and even strong bears have to seriously consider whether a macro bottom is taking shape.
The 168-day cycle points to early August
Krown also revisited one of the tools he says helped him call the 2022 macro low in public: a descending trendline on the biweekly MACD histogram. Starting with 2018, he said, each touch of that line has aligned with a market low.
He made a point of separating the histogram low from the actual price low. They are not the same event. The gap between the two, however, has been unusually consistent in his historical work.
In 2018, he said, the time from the MACD histogram low to the actual macro price low was 168 days. In 2022, it was also 168 days, down to the day. In the current cycle, he said, the trendline has already been hit. Projecting forward 168 days puts the timing window in early August.
That is why he sees convergence rather than isolated signals. Early August overlaps with the period in which the monthly 55 EMA reclaim and the stochastic cross could also be confirmed. Alessandro asked whether these indicators were all pointing to the same conclusion at once. Krown said yes, and said that is the core reason behind his 85% confidence figure. One indicator can fail, he said, but when five or six independent signals begin to align in the same week, the probability setup changes materially.
LTI model and the recurring 20% to 23% drawdown pattern
Krown next discussed his LTI, or long-term investor, model. He described it as a composite framework that includes volatility, momentum, date-based inputs and other fundamental factors. Historically, he said, each strong buy signal from the model has appeared while price still had about 20% of downside left before the final low.
He walked through the prior examples one by one:
- In December 2014, the first strong buy signal came before another 22.90% decline to the next closing low.
- In 2018, the distance from signal to low was 20.61%.
- In June 2022, the move from signal to the macro closing low was 20.65%.
- In the current cycle, a strong buy signal appeared in January 2026, and the drawdown from that signal to the current closing low has reached 22.64%.
Krown said the consistency across four cycles is striking. At the same time, he added an important condition to his macro bottom call: the weekly trend still has to reverse formally. Right now, he said, all higher timeframes remain in downtrends, and that has to be acknowledged. If the monthly close lands above the levels he outlined earlier, however, he would increase his confidence from 80% to 85%.
That does not mean he expects a straight line up. He said Bitcoin could still rally to $75,000 and later revisit $65,000. His point was narrower: the structure associated with a bottom is being built.
Fear and greed remains depressed even after price has turned
On sentiment, Krown highlighted the crypto fear and greed index. He said the reading is now 28, after spending two to three consecutive months below 20. He also said engagement on his YouTube analytics has dropped, suggesting many market participants have simply tuned out, while those who remain are deeply bearish.
That combination matters to him because he sees a familiar divergence: price has already made its main reversal from the lows, yet sentiment is still sitting in the basement. He said that same configuration appeared at every macro low in 2015, 2019 and 2022.
Even if the ultimate macro low is not fully confirmed yet, Krown said he does not think much downside remains. In his base case, the worst outcome from here would still look like a rally that lasts several months. The level he keeps coming back to is $60,000, which he described as both a psychological marker and a technical level.
As long as Bitcoin stays above $60,000, he said, he is treating the market as if a major low, and possibly a macro low, is already in place. A weekly or biweekly close below that threshold would begin to damage the structure. When Alessandro asked about invalidation, Krown said a biweekly close, or at minimum a 10-day close, below $60,000 would be needed to break many of these signals. For now, he said, he has not seen that happen.
Little interest in the four-year-cycle script
The interview then turned to the familiar four-year-cycle narrative. Krown said he no longer cares much for that framework. In his view, many traders repeat a simple line they picked up online: Bitcoin tops, then bottoms one year later, so the next low must come in October. His objection is that even the definition of the cycle top changes depending on what chart is being used.
If the chart is BTC against M2 rather than BTC against dollars, he said, the timing of the top shifts. Because of that, he would rather follow whatever the low signals are showing in the present than insist on a textbook calendar date.
Alessandro pushed back by noting that it was still only July, so if the bottom forms now or within a month or two, the four-year-cycle camp can still claim it was broadly correct. Krown agreed that July is close enough to October that the narrative could survive. He said he does not need an exact date like October 16 to make money in this market. But if Bitcoin were still making a fresh low in October, he said he would question whether that low could truly count as the cycle bottom, because the technical damage would then be much deeper.
Rotation in equities: semiconductors, biotech, industrials, gold and copper
The conversation broadened at the end to traditional markets. Krown said semiconductors had been the biggest story and that he publicly called a top there in early July. He pointed to names such as NVIDIA, Intel and Micron and said the semiconductor index is up more than 300% since April 2025, meaning holders of the index alone have effectively tripled their money. Profit-taking after that move, he said, is understandable.
Still, he said he is not bearish on the broader equity market. Sector rotation is not the same thing as a bear market. In his reading, money is moving out of semiconductors and into healthcare and biotech. He cited IBB, the iShares Biotechnology ETF, and said it has just completed a daily breakout. He expects it to continue rising into year-end, with a possible short-term buying opportunity if it pulls back toward 180. He also said industrials are strengthening.
On the broad market, Krown said the SPY chart is not bearish. A short-term pullback toward 7200 is possible, he said, but the larger trend remains bullish into Q4. He does not see any macro topping signal at the moment, at least not before October or November. QQQ, in contrast, looks weaker in the short run. He said early August could bring another flash drop, similar to what has happened in recent years, but he still expects the trend to continue higher after that.
During the exchange, Alessandro noted that a memory ETF had already given back roughly half of its gains while the broader index had held up, and that Apple had retaken the top spot by market value. Krown said Apple’s chart looks very strong and could have another three to six months of upside. In his view, this is how the market has worked since 2008: one sector tops, money rotates to the next, and the index keeps climbing. He added that many traders like to call macro tops, but in these markets being long has generally been easier than being short.
On metals, Krown said he remains “extremely bearish” on gold and silver. Gold, in his view, topped in January right on a 10-year cycle and is likely to spend the next few years moving sideways to lower. Any rally in between, he said, should be treated as a chance to sell. Copper looks completely different to him. He said it has just broken out of a roughly 20-year consolidation range dating back to 2006, with a target near $8. He tied copper’s chart to AI data center construction, saying those facilities require large amounts of the metal.
His line in the sand for copper is 560. As long as price stays above that level, he said, the technical picture remains objectively bullish. He added that he does not trade copper often, but from a chart perspective he sees a genuine breakout with more room on the upside.