Bitcoin's recent price stability has fueled hopes that the worst of the downturn may be over. However, crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO warns that a crucial technical signal that confirmed every previous macro bottom has not yet materialized, suggesting the market still lacks a decisive structural trigger.
Three Cycles, One Repeating Pattern
In a post on X, EGRAG CRYPTO highlighted historical data across three major cycles—2014-2015, 2018, and 2022—showing a consistent pattern. Each macro bottom formed only after the light blue moving average crossed below the red moving average. He emphasized that sustainable expansion never occurred without that crossover. This observation, he explained, reflects structural behavior rather than personal opinion.
During the 2014-2015 bear market, Bitcoin declined sharply before the bearish cross appeared. Price then carved out a bottoming structure and entered a prolonged recovery. The 2018 downturn followed the same framework, with the crossover appearing near the final stage of weakness, followed by a strong bullish cycle. The 2022 correction reinforced the pattern, as the light blue line crossed beneath the red line around the bottoming zone, after which Bitcoin stabilized and advanced into the next recovery phase.
Missing Crossover Leaves Bottom Unconfirmed
Currently, that bearish cross has not occurred. EGRAG CRYPTO stated that within this framework, the bottom cannot be confirmed. He outlined two possible paths forward: either the crossover still happens and aligns with historical behavior, or the market produces a rare structural deviation.
This model focuses on macro confirmation rather than short-term rebounds. Significantly, it avoids reacting to temporary rallies that lack broader support. Instead, it prioritizes trend validation through measurable indicators. Structure continues to guide long-term analysis under this framework.
Although Bitcoin remains well above previous cycle lows, confirmation depends on the moving average relationship. Traders monitoring macro cycles may remain cautious until that signal appears. Meanwhile, the absence of the crossover keeps the debate open. Market conditions also differ from earlier cycles due to increased institutional participation and evolving regulatory landscapes. Nevertheless, historical patterns continue to influence expectations.
Bitcoin's macro outlook remains under review. Past cycles required a signal before sustained recoveries began. Without it, the bottom remains technically unconfirmed within this historical model.