Bitcoin bottoming zone indicators are drawing attention as multiple long-term valuation metrics approach historically attractive levels, while key confirmation signals remain absent due to weak ETF demand and restrictive macro conditions.
On-Chain Metrics Signal Deep Value
Market analyst Tanaka posted on X that Bitcoin has entered a deep value area. At the time, BTC was trading roughly 51% below its all-time high. He highlighted several key data points: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) sits around 1.15, near historical bear-market bottoms; the MVRV Z-score is about 0.36, far from euphoric levels; and NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) hovers near the hope-fear boundary.
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) remains close to neutral. The Fear & Greed index has recovered from extremely depressed readings but is still far from euphoria. Tanaka emphasized that sentiment is nowhere near frothy conditions.
Galaxy Research's Mayer Multiple chart supports a cautious assessment. The indicator recently traded around 0.77. Historically, readings below 1 often appear during undervalued phases. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price remains above the 200-week moving average, although previous cycle bottoms frequently included a brief flush below that benchmark — which has not occurred this time.
Miner and Hash Ribbon Signals: Relief Without Extremes
The Hash Ribbons chart shows miner stress easing gradually, but the data does not reflect extreme capitulation. The Puell Multiple is near 0.75, whereas earlier bear-market bottoms often formed below 0.4. Tanaka noted that miner-related indicators remain short of historical extremes.
ETF Outflows and Macro Headwinds
ETF flows are considered a critical confirmation signal. Tanaka said persistent negative funding rates combined with positive ETF demand would be constructive, implying stronger spot absorption. But reality paints a different picture: June saw net ETF outflows of approximately $2.3 billion, including a record 13-day outflow streak.
The macro environment remains unfavorable. The Fed kept rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range, while updating projections for a higher expected policy rate for 2026. Inflation forecasts moved higher, real yields continued rising — conditions that have historically challenged Bitcoin recoveries.
Per Galaxy Research data, only 4 of 13 major bottom indicators have triggered so far.
Tanaka's base scenario anticipates extended consolidation through the summer months, with long-term holders continuing to absorb supply. He sees a possible final retest or lower low later in 2026 before broader confirmation emerges.