Bitcoin has extended its recovery above the 100-day moving average of $72,000 and recently broke through the $81,000 level. Market data shows BTC trading near the top of its current supply zone, with $80,000 acting as the critical resistance. The daily close will determine whether the rally can sustain. Over the past seven days, BTC gained about 5% on a weekly basis, daily trading volume jumped 22% to $45.67 billion, and market capitalization reached $1.61 trillion.
Next Hurdle: The 200-Day Moving Average
Chart analysis points to the 200-day moving average, currently between $83,000 and $85,000, as the next major technical obstacle. Analysts note that if daily closes stay above this band, targets at $89,000 and $94,000 could come into play. Conversely, failure to hold $81,000 may shift focus to support at $75,000 and $73,000, with the 100-day MA at $72,000 serving as the primary backup zone.
Analyst Ali Charts highlighted that Bitcoin's weekly MACD delivered a bullish crossover on April 13, after which price climbed nearly 15%. He compared historical precedents: a similar crossover on October 23, 2023 led to a 147% surge; October 14, 2024 saw a 75% gain; and May 5, 2025 triggered a 35% rally. According to Ali, this signal, coming after a lengthy consolidation, may have ignited a new upward wave.
Miner Position Index Signals Limited Selling
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Miner Position Index (MPI) dropped below -1 during February's lows around $60,000, a level historically associated with miner accumulation rather than selling. While MPI has recovered, it remains below zero, indicating miner selling pressure is not as intense as past peaks. Analysts are watching whether MPI rises above 0.5 as BTC climbs — a sustained increase could mean miners are offloading more coins at higher prices to lock in profits.
Net Realized Profits Surge to Cycle High
According to Santiment, net realized profits spiked to $207.56 million as Bitcoin broke $80,000, setting a new cycle record. Many early investors who bought at lower prices decided to sell into strength. Yet market demand remains robust enough to absorb the newly released supply. If Bitcoin can close the week above $81,000 with a solid retest, attention may quickly turn to the $86,000–$89,000 range and eventually the landmark $100,000 level.