Bitcoin briefly touched $70,200, extending its decline to more than 43% from the all-time high of about $126,000 reached last October. PlanB, the analyst best known for the Stock-to-Flow model, posted on X with a rare breakdown of four possible bear-market outcomes, from a mild case where the bottom is already in near $72,900 to a severe retracement that would drag Bitcoin down to roughly $25,000.
The harshest case points to an 80% drawdown
In PlanB’s most bearish scenario, Bitcoin would repeat the kind of collapse seen in 2014 and 2018, falling about 80% from its cycle peak. That would place the price near $25,000, implying another drop of more than 65% from current levels. The comparison has historical backing: Bitcoin fell from nearly $20,000 to $3,200 in 2018, a decline of about 84%, and from $69,000 to $15,600 in 2022, a retreat of roughly 77%.
Long-term support sits in the $50,000 to $60,000 range
A less severe path centers on the area around the 200-week moving average and realized price, which places support in the $50,000 to $60,000 zone. According to the report, the 200-week moving average is currently near $57,926. That level has marked major bottoms in past bear markets, including 2015, 2019, and 2022. Bernstein recently said Bitcoin’s short-term bear cycle could reverse after bottoming near $60,000, while several institutional downside estimates also cluster between $55,000 and $60,000.
$70,000 and $72,900 emerge as near-term markers
Another scenario places Bitcoin slightly above the previous cycle high, or around $70,000. The former record set in November 2021 was $69,000, and that area is often treated as a psychological support zone as well as a structural floor in technical analysis. The most optimistic case is that Bitcoin has already formed a local bottom near $72,900.
On-chain data does not fully support that view. The report notes that CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull Score has dropped to its lowest level since January 2023, and most indicators have yet to flash a clear bottoming signal. That leaves the market with a wide range of downside possibilities still in play.
A longtime bull is now outlining risk paths
PlanB has long been seen as one of Bitcoin’s strongest bullish voices. Last year, he said the “real bull market” had not started and set a $160,000 annual target for Bitcoin. His latest post shifts the focus. Instead of discussing upside alone, he is now laying out downside paths across different levels of stress, with market attention fixed on whether Bitcoin can hold the $70,000 area or eventually test the $50,000 to $60,000 band.