Cryptoquant’s Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator has flipped green for the first time since March 2023, a signal that historically has preceded sustained price rallies. However, analysts caution that a notable exception in 2022 keeps the outlook from being a clean bullish call.
Indicator Details and Historical Significance
The indicator is based on Cryptoquant’s Profit and Loss (P&L) Index, which aggregates three key onchain metrics: Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), and the Long-Term Holder vs. Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH/STH SOPR). When the P&L Index climbs above its 365-day moving average, the indicator turns green; when it falls below, it turns red. The last confirmed green signal occurred in March 2023 and held until August 2024, during which bitcoin surged from approximately $20,000 to an all-time high above $73,000. Thus, the May 12 flip carries significant weight for traders monitoring cycle turning points.
Caution from 2022 False Signal
Despite the positive signal, Cryptoquant flags a critical caveat. In March 2022, the same indicator briefly turned green before price quickly reversed and continued lower, ultimately bottoming out with the FTX collapse in November of that year. This false signal underscores that the current reading should be treated as a data point to watch, not a guaranteed green light for an immediate bull run.
Supporting Onchain Developments
The timing of the flip aligns with several bullish onchain developments. April spot bitcoin ETF inflows reached $2.44 billion, the strongest institutional accumulation month since October 2025. Whale wallets holding 1,000 BTC or more have grown by 142 addresses over the past six months. Additionally, Glassnode’s RHODL ratio currently sits at 4.5, the third-highest reading in bitcoin’s history; comparable prior readings occurred at the 2015 and 2022 cycle bottoms, both followed by sustained bull markets. The Bull-Bear indicator had been deep in negative territory as recently as February 2026, when it dropped to its lowest level since the FTX bottom, corresponding to bitcoin’s pullback from its October 2025 peak near $126,000. Since then, price has stabilized around $80,000 with consistently positive ETF flows heading into May.
2026 Price Forecasts Remain Divided
Forecasts for the rest of 2026 vary widely. Standard Chartered and Bernstein both target $150,000 by year-end, while Fidelity’s director of global macro, Jurrien Timmer, argues that the October 2025 high may have been the cycle top, with 2026 acting as a consolidation year rather than continuation. The conflicting views underscore the uncertainty even as onchain metrics flash bullish.