CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator turned green on May 12, 2026, marking the first such signal since March 2023. The indicator, which aggregates on-chain metrics including MVRV ratio, NUPL, and Long-Term vs Short-Term Holder SOPR, is used to identify macro market regimes. When the Profit and Loss Index crosses above its 365-day moving average, the indicator turns green, historically associated with sustained bullish trends.
The last green signal in March 2023 triggered a rally that took Bitcoin from roughly $20,000 to an all-time high above $73,000 by March 2024. However, Cryptoquant flags a notable exception: in March 2022, the indicator flashed green only for Bitcoin to reject the move and eventually bottom out during the FTX collapse in November 2022. This false signal reminds traders that no single metric guarantees price direction.
On-Chain Developments Supporting Bullish Outlook
Despite the caveat, the current flip aligns with multiple bullish on-chain developments. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows in April reached $2.44 billion, the strongest month since October 2025. Whale addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC have grown by 142 over the past six months. Additionally, Glassnode's RHODL ratio sits at 4.5, the third-highest in Bitcoin's history, with only comparable readings at the 2015 and 2022 cycle bottoms—both followed by sustained bull markets.
The Bull-Bear indicator had been deeply in negative territory as recently as February 2026, when Cryptoquant noted it dropped to its lowest level since the FTX bottom. Bitcoin's recovery from its October 2025 peak near $126,000 has been gradual, stabilizing in the $80,000 range as ETF flows turned consistently positive heading into May.
2026 Price Forecasts Remain Divided
Looking ahead, price forecasts for the rest of 2026 are mixed. Standard Chartered and Bernstein both target $150,000 by year-end. However, Fidelity's global macro director Jurrien Timmer argues that the October 2025 high may have marked the cycle top, making 2026 a consolidation year rather than continuation. The green signal adds a layer of optimism but does not resolve the fundamental debate over Bitcoin's medium-term trajectory.