CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Bull Score Index has returned to the neutral level of 50 for the first time since the market entered the $126,000 range, following a price rebound from just under $60,000 to $78,000. The index, built on 10 on-chain indicators covering transaction activity, investor profitability, and liquidity, now shows half of its components turning positive while the other half remain weak.
On-Chain Metrics Signal Structural Change
Readings below 40 indicate structural weakness and a bearish environment; above 60 points to a strong and sustainable uptrend. CryptoQuant's research team sees the move back to 50 as a meaningful shift after a prolonged bearish period. Researcher Julio Moreno noted this is the first neutral reading of the current bear market, drawing parallels to March 2022 when the index stayed at 50 for only one week before prices plummeted again.
Unlike price-only indicators, the Bull Score Index also reflects structural on-chain improvements. However, history cautions against early optimism: in March 2022, Bitcoin rallied from $35,000 to $48,000 as the index hit 50, convincing many the bear market was over—only for prices to crash below $20,000 soon after.
Low Volatility, Hedging Dominates Current Positioning
Despite similarities, today's market structure shows key differences. Singapore-based QCP Capital observed that short-term volatility is hovering around 40, with investors seeking downside protection rather than betting on a rally. Derivatives positioning points to sideways movement, not a clear breakout. Market experts emphasize that neutral signals like this often precede sharp swings in either direction, and past false signals reinforce the need for vigilance. Many participants are hedging against potential declines instead of chasing upside, putting risk management at the forefront.