Bitcoin demand is splitting into two very different tracks. Recent market data cited from Alphractal and other analytics sources show short-term holders losing momentum, while whales and institutions are using the pullback to keep buying.
Short-term holders are losing conviction
The source says the 90-day net position change is still slightly positive, but the pace of accumulation among short-term holders has dropped sharply in recent days. That kind of slowdown usually points to softer demand, and similar periods in the past have often come before either consolidation or a jump in volatility.
Alphractal founder Joao Wedson said continued buying by large firms such as Strategy has not yet spread across the broader market. In his view, it is risky to read overall demand from the actions of only a few big players; the better signal comes from looking at how all categories of participants are behaving. Compared with three months ago, short-term investors now look much more hesitant.
The gap between strong institutional activity and muted retail participation is being read by some analysts as a market regime change. After Bitcoin’s sharp drop from $126,000 to $60,000, newer entrants appear far less willing to take risk, leaving many smaller buyers in a wait-and-see mode.
Whales are buying into weakness
Whales have taken the opposite approach. According to CryptoQuant data cited in the report, large Bitcoin wallets have increased their holdings by more than 200,000 BTC. A rise in whale balances on exchanges can often trigger concern about potential selling pressure, but the medium-term picture in this case shows whale control over total supply continuing to grow.
After their share slipped last December, whale dominance recovered by 3.4% over the past month. The total amount of Bitcoin held by whales has now climbed from 2.9 million BTC to more than 3.1 million BTC. The report compares this to the accumulation seen during the April 2025 correction, when whale support was seen as a key factor behind Bitcoin’s rebound from $76,000 to $126,000.
Whale demand is supporting the current range
With Bitcoin still about 46% below its peak, whales appear to be treating current levels as an attractive entry point. By absorbing sell pressure and buying aggressively, large holders are helping stabilize the market.
Wedson said that even as smaller investors remain cautious, ongoing purchases by whales and institutions are preventing a deeper slide and may influence the next major move. For now, the report says Bitcoin’s range around $68,000 is being supported mainly by medium-term institutional and whale demand rather than a return of short-term speculative buying.