Bitcoin traded at $69,490, moving back within reach of the $70,000 level it lost in March 2026. Brent crude moved the other way, falling $3 over the past 24 hours to $105. The shift came as renewed ceasefire discussions linked to the conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran eased some of the pressure that had weighed on risk assets.
Ceasefire framework lifts appetite for risk assets
Reuters reported that a ceasefire proposal circulated on Monday, describing early-stage talks among the parties. The report said a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains a central part of the discussions. Under the framework described, the U.S. and Iran would hold talks with regional actors serving as mediators. A memorandum of understanding is expected as the first step, followed by a broader agreement that could take up to 45 days to complete. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz may then require another 15 to 20 days.
The wider deal is also expected to include commitments from Iran to halt any pursuit of nuclear weapons. For markets, the immediate effect was a cooler view on oil-driven inflation in the U.S. Elevated energy prices tend to keep inflation pressure in place and can reinforce expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee will maintain tighter financial conditions. That setting has usually been a headwind for Bitcoin and other risk assets. This time, capital started rotating back.
The picture is still unstable. Earlier episodes involving the U.S., Iran, and Israel have repeatedly swung back toward escalation after initial signs of de-escalation. On Sunday, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social and warned about possible escalation, including references to potential attacks on Iranian infrastructure, a reminder that the negotiations remain fragile.
On-chain data shows weak spot demand under the surface
The macro backdrop may have improved, but on-chain signals have not turned decisively stronger. CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin’s apparent demand dropped to negative 86,000 BTC, equal to roughly $5.97 billion, one of the weakest readings seen in recent months. The metric points to limited accumulation and an ongoing contraction in market demand, with caution still visible across participants.
At the same time, part of the market is moving deeper into long-term holding behavior. Metrics tracking long-term supply and unspent transaction outputs, or UTXOs, indicate that long-term holders are still adding to positions. Those holders have accumulated about 308,000 BTC, valued at around $21.4 billion. Even so, that remains well below the 674,000 BTC recorded in November, which suggests accumulation is continuing at a slower pace.
Long-term accumulation grows, but short-term consolidation risk remains
Historically, this kind of supply migration toward long-term holders has often come before short consolidation phases or temporary pullbacks, even while it improves Bitcoin’s longer-term setup. There is still no formal confirmation from the U.S., Iran, or Israel, but any credible progress toward a ceasefire could keep easing inflation concerns and help restore confidence in Bitcoin demand.