Bitcoin’s supply held by so-called “conviction buyers” has surged to nearly 4 million BTC, a 300% increase since the end of 2025, according to Bitfinex citing BitGo data on Wednesday. At current prices around $80,000, the hoard is worth over $320 billion. Bitfinex analysts called it the largest two-quarter surge in high-conviction buying since the 2020 COVID-19 crash, pointing to a massive migration of realized value into low-activity entities.
Supply Squeeze and Potential Shock
Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, commented: “While the exact methodology behind BitGo’s ‘conviction buyers’ metric isn’t immediately clear, the broader signal is notable. Historically, periods of tightening liquid supply combined with renewed demand have created conditions for bitcoin’s most aggressive upside expansions.” Bitfinex noted that a growing share of bitcoin’s realized value is no longer circulating on exchanges but is moving to entities that rarely transact—ranging from institutional whales to corporate treasuries. Strategy (MSTR), the largest publicly traded corporate holder, now owns 818,869 BTC acquired for nearly $62 billion, sitting on $4.6 billion in unrealized gains. When supply moves into such hands, it effectively reduces liquid supply available on the open market, fueling a potential “supply shock.”
Segregated Long-Term Holdings
Core developer Jameson Lopp clarified that the 4 million BTC in conviction buyers’ hands excludes an estimated 5.6 million BTC that has been inactive for over a decade. Total circulating supply stands at 20.03 million BTC. While long-dormant addresses typically belong to lost keys or early miners, conviction buyers are active accumulators who rarely sell, creating a distinct structural layer in Bitcoin’s realized capitalization.
Profitability as Psychological Floor
Separate research from CEX.IO shows that nearly 70% of recent buyers’ supply is currently in profit. Historically, such a high share of underwater positions acts as a psychological buffer against sell-offs, making holders less trigger-happy during dips. Combined with shrinking liquid supply, the market is shifting from high-turnover exchange circulation to long-term locked-in storage, a pattern that has historically preceded major price rallies.