The gap between Bitcoin long-term and short-term holder cost bases has widened to $23,000, a level that on-chain analyst Darkfost says keeps the market structure broadly in line with prior cycles. What has not happened yet is the crossover that often appeared in earlier bear markets, when short-term holder cost basis fell below that of long-term holders.
Holder cost data still shows a wide separation
The realized price metric tracks the average acquisition cost of coins moved on-chain. Based on Darkfost’s analysis, long-term holders are sitting on an average cost of around $49,500, reflecting lower entry prices built during accumulation periods. Short-term holders, by contrast, hold an average purchase price near $72,500, leaving them more exposed if the market turns lower.
Darkfost noted that in previous cycles, the short-term holder cost basis eventually moved below the long-term holder level. After that crossover, Bitcoin often remained weak for several months. In the current cycle, that signal has not appeared, which suggests the pattern of stress seen in past downturns has not fully played out.
Technical view points to possible drops below $53,000
In a separate market read, Crypto Lens argued that Bitcoin’s move up to $66,000 may be a bull trap inside a broader downtrend. Under that scenario, the rise from $63,000 to $66,000 could be followed by a decline toward $53,000 and $48,000.
A more negative path puts Bitcoin at $43,000, with $32,000 mentioned as the harshest case. Crypto Lens outlined three scenarios: a retreat to $48,000 within days, a drop to $43,000 in August, or a slide to $32,000 in September if selling pressure intensifies.
Bitcoin trades at $63,781 with $23.5 billion in volume
At the time of reporting, CoinGecko data showed Bitcoin at $63,781.20. The asset was up 0.53% over the last 24 hours and 5% over the past week, while trading volume stood at $23.5 billion. Even with that recent strength, both analyses frame the cost gap between long-term and short-term holders as a metric worth watching closely.