Macro Headlines Dominate Bitcoin's Week
Bitcoin is heading into a make-or-break week. The US August Producer Price Index (PPI) lands Thursday, then the Consumer Price Index (CPI) follows Friday, and after that comes the Federal Reserve's rate decision on September 16. CME FedWatch says markets are now pricing a 58.4% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, taking the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4%.
Japan's Currency Intervention and Treasury Sell-off Risk
And Japan is back in focus. The country's record-breaking yen intervention has traders watching closely. Since the end of July, Japan's foreign reserves have fallen by roughly $79.57 billion, and analysts think the government may have sold US Treasuries to pay for the intervention. Polymarket data puts the odds at 98% that the Bank of Japan raises rates by 25 basis points in September. If the yen moves and carry trades start to shift, global liquidity and crypto markets could feel it.
Derivatives-Driven Rally Lacks Spot Confirmation
CryptoQuant says Bitcoin's latest climb has mostly come from futures, not spot buyers. That's the problem. Open interest in derivatives jumped by around $2.3 billion in one day, reaching $27.53 billion, while spot demand is still negative. So yes, the uptrend is there, but its staying power is very much in question.
Technical Signal Turns Bullish, but Resistance Remains
On the chart side, Bitcoin posted its first weekly close above $80,000 in several months. But sellers are still active around that mark. The weekly Supertrend indicator switched to a "buy" signal for the first time since November 2025. That looks a lot like the setup seen near the early 2023 bear market bottom before a major rally. Whether this time follows the same script is still an open question.