Bitcoin fell below $77,000 during Monday's Asian session, snapping a period of relative calm as macro headwinds intensified. The move was triggered by a surge in crude oil prices and a sharp rise in long-dated U.S. Treasury yields — the 30-year yield closed at 5.13%, its highest since 2007. The 10-year and 2-year yields also extended last week's climb, hitting 12-month peaks.
Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, particularly when inflation concerns drive the move. Polymarket odds show traders pricing a 98% chance of no Fed rate change in June and 94% in July, leaving little room for near-term monetary relief. For risk assets, that means tighter financial conditions will persist unless data shifts dramatically.
On-Chain Data Sends Mixed Signals
Binance Research, citing Glassnode, reports that nearly 60% of the Bitcoin supply has not moved in over a year, while exchange balances sit at six-year lows — a sign that long-term holders are locking up coins. However, the short-term holder MVRV ratio has dropped below 1, meaning recent buyers are, on average, underwater. That makes the market more vulnerable to further declines: investors sitting on losses have less capacity to absorb another macro-driven selloff.
Key Catalysts This Week
Presto Research highlights several events traders are watching, including Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, U.S. PPI on Thursday, and progress on the CLARITY Act — a market structure bill advancing in Washington. Nvidia has become a broad risk gauge due to its central role in the AI trade, while PPI will offer another read on whether inflation pressure is broadening beyond energy.
For crypto, the near-term question is whether Bitcoin can stabilize while rates stay elevated. Low exchange balances and inactive older supply can limit obvious spot-selling pressure, but they do not prevent sharp moves when macro traders cut risk or when recent buyers fall deeper into losses. That leaves Bitcoin trading between two forces: on-chain data showing long-term holders largely inactive, and a rates market giving investors few reasons to add exposure before the next inflation print.