Bitcoin has fallen below the critical $80,400 level, continuing to pressure the broader altcoin market. Analysts attribute the decline to a combination of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors that have dampened sentiment.
Macro and Geopolitical Headwinds
Prominent analyst Sherpa pointed to persistent inflation and barely steady employment data, raising the probability of interest rate hikes. Even if Warsh receives Senate approval today, calls for rate cuts — no matter how vocal from Trump — appear unrealistic as long as current conditions persist. Any attempt to cut rates could reignite debates over the Federal Reserve's independence, similar to when Trump threatened to replace Fed officials who did not comply last year.
On the geopolitical front, the protracted standoff with Iran is also weighing on prices. According to a source familiar with the talks, the Iranian negotiating team has been instructed to demand five conditions before nuclear discussions can begin: an end to all hostilities, removal of all sanctions, release of frozen funds, compensation for war damages, and recognition of Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. A deal appears far off.
Technical Outlook: 4-Hour 200-Day EMA in Focus
Sherpa noted short-term pressure on Bitcoin, though he is uncertain of the exact reason for the gradual decline. He is monitoring the 4-hour 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) around $76,000. "If this downward trend continues, I'm watching the 200-day EMA on the 4-hour chart, around $76,000," Sherpa said. That level could become a key support area.
LINK and NEAR Under Scrutiny
The altcoin market is not immune. Analyst Ali Martinez hopes LINK Coin will confirm its breakout from an ascending triangle pattern by holding above $10.08. His target is $12.42, but the coin has retreated to as low as $10.25. With Bitcoin struggling to reclaim $80,400, LINK's odds look slim.
Daan Crypto Trades, who has previously disclosed a significant position in NEAR, remains optimistic. He argued that given NEAR's strong breakout in the past, a retest of $1.41 is highly unlikely, and the price is aiming for $2 instead. "Since altcoins have recently experienced a major drop, it's highly likely that markets will see strong upward movement in the coming period. NEAR has already had a strong breakout, and I don't expect a retest at $1.41," he noted.
Market Outlook
With the crypto market shaped by macroeconomic fears and geopolitical tensions, both Bitcoin and key altcoins like LINK and NEAR are at critical junctures. Investors are closely watching technical support levels as overall sentiment remains cautious.