Bitcoin fell 16% in a single week, and the retreat put the futures market at the center of the move. Trading in derivatives far outpaced spot activity, making futures the main source of short-term price swings. As leveraged positions were unwound, downside pressure accelerated and recovery attempts lost momentum.
Binance carried the heaviest selling pressure
Binance accounted for nearly 38% of all open Bitcoin positions, placing the exchange at the core of the sell-off. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said aggressive sell orders on Binance climbed to their highest level since Bitcoin broke below $60,000 in early February. In futures trading, open positions refer to contracts that remain active, while taker sell orders reflect immediate market selling and usually point to urgent pressure from the sell side.
Darkfost described this week’s move as one of the sharpest capitulation phases seen in recent months, with especially heavy selling on Binance driving volatility higher. Friday stood out as the most turbulent session of the week. Binance alone recorded more than $15 billion in futures sell volume that day. Over the course of the week, daily sell volume ranged between $10 billion and $13 billion, pushing the exchange’s weekly average from $4.4 billion to $10 billion.
Spot ETF withdrawals added to the decline
Spot Bitcoin ETFs also deepened the pullback, posting a net outflow of $1.75 billion for the week. That marked the weakest weekly result for spot Bitcoin ETFs since April 2025. The figures suggest caution was not limited to leveraged traders; institutional money was also reducing exposure during the same period.
Debate grows over cycle-based downside targets
On social media, analyst Astronomer pushed back against bearish calls built around the four-year cycle theory. He argued that some market participants were using that framework selectively to support targets below $50,000, even though market narratives are often driven as much by expectations as by raw data.
Astronomer also drew a comparison with gold’s eight-year cycle, saying market bottoms do not have to fall below prior lows. In his view, the $60,000 to $80,000 range may represent a macro floor for Bitcoin going forward. For now, analysts remain focused on open interest and taker volume to see whether this week’s rapid unwind marks a major turning point or whether selling pressure continues to dominate.