Bitcoin has slumped 22.7% over the past four weeks, and MicroStrategy (rebranded as Strategy) founder Michael Saylor attributed the selloff to capital rotating into AI-related sectors rather than a loss of confidence in Bitcoin itself. However, the company's sale of 32 BTC intensified bearish sentiment, with some traders declaring Bitcoin dead.
MicroStrategy: AI Rotation, Not Bitcoin's Failure
Saylor explained on social media that capital is shifting from crypto to AI plays, pressuring Bitcoin's price. MicroStrategy still holds 843,706 BTC; the 32 BTC sold represents a negligible fraction. Yet anonymous trader QE Infinity tweeted that even Saylor is selling, signaling Bitcoin's dysfunction.
Glassnode On-Chain Data: Realized Losses Surge, ETF Cost Basis Becomes Resistance
Glassnode reported that as of June 3, Bitcoin had fallen 13% in seven days. The 7-day moving average plunged from 3.16 to 0.29, echoing the February panic. The 90-day average stayed below 2, confirming the $82,000 rally as a bear-market bounce. Daily realized losses reached $1.35 billion, with $770 million coming from long-term holders at cycle tops, indicating ongoing supply redistribution. Bitcoin was also rejected precisely at the $83,000 cost basis of U.S. spot ETFs, putting those holders back into unrealized losses and establishing overhead resistance.
Options Market Defensive, Market Makers Hedging
Bitcoin's 7-day spot volume differential turned negative and hit a February low, favoring sellers. Implied volatility contracted, but future volatility priced in options remains higher than recent market moves, widening the volatility risk premium. The Delta skew remains in put premium territory, meaning investors still pay more for downside protection. Market makers hold concentrated gamma near current price levels, with most flow being defensive hedging.
Short-Term Holders Turning Long-Term, Yet Price Returns to Square One
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju noted that wallets holding Bitcoin for 6 months to 2 years now control 53% of realized cap, up from 15% two years ago. Historically, this metric reaches 68% at bottoms, suggesting short-term holders are evolving into long-term holders. The average cost basis for investors is currently $53,000; bear markets historically end after prices break below that level, but current selling pressure remains heavy. Ju calculated that spot ETFs and MicroStrategy have absorbed over 1.24 million BTC in this cycle, yet the price is back where it started, highlighting an extremely violent redistribution of coins.