Bitcoin has fallen 23% in the first 50 trading days of 2026, making it the worst start to a year on record. Data cited from Checkonchain shows the asset fell 10% in January and another 15% in February, putting it on track for what could become the first back-to-back January and February declines in Bitcoin’s history.
On-chain data shows losses spreading fast
According to the analysis, Bitcoin recorded $3.2 billion in realized losses on Feb. 5, the highest single-day figure on record. Short-term holders saw their MVRV ratio fall to 0.87, which implies an average loss of 13%. At the same time, 35.66% of circulating supply was sitting at a loss, with the average drawdown reaching 18%.
Roughly 50% of circulating supply is now underwater. That level has previously appeared only around bottoming zones in 2015, 2019, and 2022. Even so, bottom-like signals do not confirm that a market low is in place. Analysts cited in the source see a possible bottom range between $60,000 in a more optimistic case and $52,000 in a weaker one, with the latter described as an MVRV support level.
Spot ETF flows are no longer telling a simple story
Pressure is also showing up in the US spot Bitcoin ETF segment. From November 2025 to January 2026, the ETF complex posted about $7 billion in net outflows. The source describes this as the longest continuous outflow stretch since spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading.
10x Research’s Markus Thielen questioned how much of the demand should be treated as durable institutional buying. He estimates that 55% to 75% of BlackRock’s IBIT holders may be market makers and arbitrage funds rather than conviction-based long-term investors. If that estimate is close to reality, the market may need to reassess how much real structural demand ETFs have added.
The post-halving pattern is under strain
2025, the first year after the halving, broke with Bitcoin’s historical pattern. Previous post-halving first years delivered outsized gains: 5,507% in 2013, 1,331% in 2017, and 60% in 2021. But 2025 ended down about 6.33%, making it the first post-halving year to finish in negative territory. Now, in the second year after the halving, 2026 is reinforcing the market’s traditional bearish label with sharper-than-expected weakness.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said the four-year cycle is breaking down, though he framed that shift in a constructive way, pointing to a fading halving effect, ETF-driven institutional demand, and eventually lower rates. The pushback is straightforward. If the halving is no longer strong enough to drive cyclical upside on its own, Bitcoin’s pricing becomes more dependent on macro conditions and liquidity, at a time when the Federal Reserve is holding rates high, tariffs are feeding inflation, and tech stocks are under pressure.
Institutionalization has grown, but so has macro sensitivity
Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, cut his end-2026 price target from $150,000 to $100,000 and warned that Bitcoin could fall to $50,000 first. He said, “We expect further price capitulation over the coming months.” Peter Brandt offered a much lower scenario, saying that if the parabolic structure breaks, Bitcoin could drop to $25,000, with a true bottom possibly not arriving until October 2026.
The source frames the current moment as a contradiction. Bitcoin now has spot ETFs, strategic reserve narratives, friendlier regulation, and support from major financial institutions, yet its market performance is the weakest opening on record. The argument is not that institutionalization failed. It is that Bitcoin is being priced more like a macro asset, with interest rates, trade policy, and tech equity performance taking a larger role than the halving cycle alone.