Selling pressure intensified on Thursday as Bitcoin retreated from an intraday high of $68,300. Data from Glassnode and CryptoQuant suggests the capitulation phase is far from over. Long-term holders (LTH) offloaded 245,000 BTC in a single day on February 6, setting a new record for this cycle.
LTH Dumping on a Historic Scale
Glassnode's LTH net position change metric has been averaging a daily sell-off of ~170,000 BTC since the extreme event. Comparable LTH distribution occurred during the 2019 correction and mid-2021 drawdown, both of which led to prolonged consolidation and further downside.
MVRV Z-Score at -2.66 Confirms Capitulation
CryptoQuant's MVRV adaptive Z-Score (365-day window) dropped to -2.66. Analyst GugaOnChain noted that reading confirms Bitcoin remains in a 'surrender zone,' historically preceding accumulation phases. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is also approaching 1.0, a level associated with full-blown capitulation where realized losses outweigh profits.
Analysts Predict Q4 Bottom, $40K-$50K Target
Technical and on-chain analysis point to a potential bottom in the fourth quarter. Analyst Tony Research expects Bitcoin to bottom between $40,000 and $50,000, most likely between mid-September and late November. Titan of Crypto draws parallels to the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, where lows occurred roughly 12 months after the peaks. Since the all-time high of $126,000 was set on October 2, 2025, a similar rhythm would place the bottom around October 2026.
On-Chain College highlighted net realized losses spiking to $13.6 billion on February 7, matching the 2022 bear peak. In 2022, the loss peak preceded the actual bottom by five months, suggesting a potential July 2026 bottom.
Across the board, 2026 is widely viewed as a bear year. The question for investors has shifted from whether it will fall to how deep and how long the decline will last.