Bitcoin has fallen roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak, yet institutional investors haven't rushed for the exits. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan points to ETF flow data as the clearest sign that professional money is holding steady through the downturn.
“The best evidence we have is in the ETF market,” Hougan said. “Bitcoin ETFs accumulated roughly $60 billion in net flows from their launch in January 2024 through October 2025. Since October 2025, prices are down 50%, but we've seen less than $10 billion in outflows from ETFs.” In his view, that makes professional investors the real “diamond hands.”
Why Institutions Stay: The 'Non-Consensus' Bet
Hougan argues the data refute a common criticism that institutional holders would bail quickly during market stress. Instead, the opposite may be happening.
“Bitcoin remains a non-consensus asset,” he said. “Institutional investors who buy bitcoin today are still sticking their neck out and standing out from their peers.” That career risk means those allocating to bitcoin tend to have very high conviction. “They are not 51% convinced bitcoin is a good idea; they are 80% or 90% convinced. Otherwise, they wouldn't take the risk.” As a result, institutional capital could remain “very sticky” for the foreseeable future.
The $1 Million Bitcoin Target
Hougan said the resilient behavior of institutions strengthens his long-term $1 million price target. “The wildest thing about my $1 million prediction is that it's not wild at all,” he said. “All you need for bitcoin to get to $1 million is for the global store of value market to continue to grow as it has for the past 20 years and for bitcoin to become a minor but material part of that market.”
Bitwise's own spot Bitcoin ETF (BITB) holds nearly $3 billion in assets, while BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) commands over $55 billion.