Bitcoin extended its decline on Tuesday, moving closer to the $62,000 level amid a confluence of headwinds. Spot ETF outflows continued for a sixth consecutive week, macro rate expectations turned more hawkish, quarter-end options expiry added pressure, and geopolitical tensions resurfaced. Ethereum also fell below $1,700. Both BTC and ETH have experienced drawdowns of nearly 20% over the past 30 days.
Hawkish Fed Shift Reshapes Rate Expectations
The latest pressure stems from two major fronts. First, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75% at the June 18 FOMC meeting, but the post-meeting statement notably toned down dovish language. The dot plot, previously signaling rate cuts, now points toward potential hikes. Nine out of 18 Fed officials now see at least one rate increase this year, and the probability of a December hike has risen sharply compared to a month ago. This hawkish pivot has weighed on risk assets, with crypto markets reacting quickly.
Geopolitical Risk Returns as US-Iran Talks Collapse
Second, geopolitical risks have re-emerged. Earlier hopes of a US-Iran ceasefire had pushed Bitcoin above $67,000, but the situation unraveled on June 19 when Iran walked away from the signing ceremony. Because the crypto market trades 24/7, Bitcoin was the first asset to reflect the shock. The uncertainty amplified investor caution.
Options Expiry and Key Data on the Horizon
Additionally, Deribit is set to see approximately $10.6 billion in options expire on June 26, adding to quarter-end jitters. Analysts suggest that much of the leverage has already been flushed out, leaving the market in a defensive posture. However, the next directional move will likely depend on Thursday's PCE inflation data and whether spot ETF flows can turn positive again. A cooler-than-expected PCE reading could ease rate-hike fears, while a hot print would likely reinforce the risk-off mood.