Bitcoin (BTC) slid below $66,300 on Friday, a level not seen since March 9, pressured by escalating geopolitical uncertainties and the looming expiration of approximately $14.16 billion in Bitcoin options contracts on Deribit.
Geopolitical Uncertainty Dampens Market Sentiment
President Donald Trump's recent 10-day suspension of potential strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure failed to spark the buying enthusiasm some investors had anticipated. Data shows BTC hit an intraday low of $66,201 around 7:00 AM EST before recovering slightly to $66,700. However, the cryptocurrency has now given back most of the gains made during the first three weeks of March, leaving market sentiment fragile.
Meanwhile, traditional stock markets in Europe and Asia remained largely steady, with only Germany's DAX index falling more than 1%. Traders appeared to react with a collective shrug to Trump's latest extension, contrasting sharply with the optimism seen on Monday when the first five-day pause was announced.
$14B Options Expiry Amplifies Volatility
Beyond geopolitics, analysts pointed to structural headwinds from the quarterly options expiration. The roughly $14.16 billion in Bitcoin contracts rolling over on Deribit represent nearly 40% of the exchange's total open interest, making it one of the largest quarterly expiries in recent years. According to data from Greeks.live, the “max pain” price for this expiration is near $75,000. When the spot price sits far below this level, institutional dealers' delta hedging tends to exert downward drag, suppressing volatility and pinning price action in a tight range until contracts are cleared.
Liquidation Cascade: Heavy Long Losses
The sharp drop triggered a wave of liquidations across the digital asset landscape. Bitcoin's market cap fell to $1.33 trillion, dragging the total crypto market capitalization to a fragile $2.37 trillion. In derivatives, nearly $115 million in long positions were wiped out within just four hours; over the full 24-hour window, BTC long liquidations totaled approximately $169 million. Across the broader crypto market, nearly $400 million in long positions were flushed, underscoring the systemic impact of cascading forced selling across major exchanges.
Middle East Situation and Policy Divisions
The geopolitical backdrop remains somber. After a month-long aerial campaign failed to spark an internal uprising in Tehran, some observers suggest the Trump administration is seeking a face-saving exit. However, hardliners within the U.S. government view any withdrawal as a strategic defeat as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains under Iranian control. To avoid being seen as retreating, some officials are reportedly advocating a “boots on the ground” approach — an escalation the administration has publicly tried to avoid. Separately, ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) finalized its $600 million investment in Polymarket, completing the planned $2 billion phased deal that began in October 2025, though this did little to lift crypto market sentiment.