CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said in an X post that bitcoin is trading below the short-term holder (STH) cost basis, a metric that tracks the average purchase price of coins held for less than 155 days. As of Aug. 8, 2026, BTC traded at $64,952, against a short-term holder realized price of $67,523 — a 3.8% discount of $2,571, the narrowest since July 21. Over the past 284 days, bitcoin has closed below that realized level on 279 days. Adler said this time may be no exception, with STHs potentially selling into the market to exit around breakeven.
Bitcoin is now trading below the cost basis of short-term holders, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. That on-chain gauge measures the average purchase price of BTC held for less than 155 days.
As of Aug. 8, 2026, bitcoin stood at $64,952, while the short-term holder realized price was $67,523. That puts the spot price 3.8% below that level, a gap of $2,571 — the narrowest since July 21. Adler pointed out that over the past 284 days, bitcoin has closed beneath the STH realized price on 279 days. He said this time may be no exception, and short-term holders could start selling to the market to square up around breakeven.
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