Mark Connors, former global head of portfolio management at Credit Suisse and now chief investment officer of Risk Dimensions, said in a recent interview that Bitcoin has just ended a record 142-day stretch of consecutive underperformance against the S&P 500 — the longest such period since the cryptocurrency’s inception. He believes the consolidation phase is over and that Bitcoin is poised to re-enter a cycle of outperformance relative to stocks, bonds, and gold.
Three-Pronged Pressure: Inflation, Oil, Rates Undermine Bonds
Connors’ core argument centers on the eroding role of traditional defensive assets. The U.S. April CPI stood at 3.8% and PPI at 6%, with the Federal Reserve’s “higher for longer” rate path becoming the base case. As rate-cut expectations fade, bonds face a dual squeeze: coupon yields trail inflation, and capital gains are capped by rate hike expectations. “When the market adapts to higher-for-longer rates, the defensive function of bonds comes under increasing pressure,” Connors said. Structurally high oil prices — driven by geopolitical tensions and persistent energy costs — add to the inflationary backdrop, forcing capital to seek inflation-hedging instruments.
Gold Passes the Baton to Bitcoin: 2020 Repeat?
Connors draws a historical parallel: in early 2020, gold rallied first, but Bitcoin subsequently mounted a strong rebound and eventually overtook gold. He sees the 2026 market structure as highly similar. “Gold has had its run,” Connors said. ���Bitcoin is now starting its recovery.” This reframes Bitcoin’s narrative from “digital gold” to something broader.
AI and Blockchain: A Productivity Engine Against Inflation
Beyond macroeconomics, Connors highlights the convergence of AI and blockchain technology as a key tool for companies combating inflation. “The only way to break through inflation pressure is through technology,” he said. As businesses turn to decentralized systems for machine-driven transactions and automated processes, the link between AI and blockchain grows tighter. This extends Bitcoin’s role from mere value storage to a productivity infrastructure asset — one that resonates with the technology upgrade cycle and theoretically offers stronger resilience in a high-inflation, high-rate environment.
“First to Take a Beating, First to Burst Out”
Connors does not downplay Bitcoin’s short-term volatility. “Bitcoin, as always, is the first to take a beating, but also the first to burst out,” he said. He expects Bitcoin’s outperformance relative to equities and fixed income to continue as the market grinds through a period of persistent negative headlines and stubbornly high oil prices. BTC currently trades around $76,800. Whether the 142-day underperformance is truly over still needs to be validated by subsequent data.