Bitcoin is trading near a level that has historically appeared only late in bear markets. Data from Checkonchain show BTC moving down toward its 200-week average, a rough four-year trend line closely watched by long-term holders. On that model, bitcoin now sits in the bottom 10% of its historical valuation range, an area that has shown up only during the deepest phases of previous downturns.
Sentiment is showing similar stress. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index stands at 9, deep in extreme fear, down from 11 last week and 48 a month ago. Readings like that often appear after price-sensitive sellers have already done most of their selling. Even so, Checkonchain cautioned that market bottoms tend to be a process rather than a single event: capitulation comes first, then months of sideways trading that wear down holders who remain in the market.
Brief Drop Below $60,000 Followed by a Limited Rebound
Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000 this week for the first time since 2024. It traded at $62,623 on Thursday, up 1.9% on the day, though still lower on the week as a record stretch of ETF outflows kept draining capital from the market.
The recovery across major tokens was broad but modest. Ether rose 1.4% to $1,651, BNB added 1.3% to $595, Solana gained 0.9% to $65, and Dogecoin climbed 1.1% to $0.085. XRP lagged, slipping 0.3% to $1.12. Over the past seven days, all of them remained in the red, led by Ether with a 6.5% decline and XRP with a 7.5% drop. Thursday’s move reduced the scale of weekly losses, but it did not erase them.
Hot Inflation Data and Weaker Policy Hopes Add Pressure
Macro conditions are not supporting a fast rebound. US consumer prices rose 0.5% in May from April and 4.2% from a year earlier, the fastest annual pace since early 2023, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Wednesday. The report said the Iran war pushed up energy costs. The core reading, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2%, below economists’ expectations and the softest part of an otherwise strong inflation report.
Regulatory expectations have also weakened. Yves Renno, head of Trading at global crypto payments platform Wirex, told CoinDesk that hopes for US regulatory clarity had faded again. On Polymarket, the odds of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 fell from 62% to 48% this week. He added that attention is now on the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, with Warsh’s tone seen as key to whether bitcoin rebounds toward $68,000-$72,000 or breaks fully below $60,000.